- North Carolina is a critical state in the 2020 Presidential election cycle.
- Joe Biden has -130 odds to win the state, and a 3 point polling lead in NC.
- North Carolina is a state that Donald Trump needs to win to have a shot at 270 electoral votes.
CHARLOTTE - Donald Trump and Joe Biden are hurtling towards the finish line, as November 3 grows ever closer.
The Trump Campaign has recently been worried about North Carolina, which is a state that traditionally goes Red.
North Carolina provides an interesting signal to election bettors - it is a state that could signal a big Biden victory if it goes Blue, or a Trump upset depending on the margin if it goes Red.
For this reason, keeping an eye on North Carolina can be a good way to measure where the odds should be in the presidential race.
North Carolina Presidential Election Betting Odds
Right now, the odds show the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, sitting slightly in front of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
North Carolina Electoral Odds
- Democratic Candidate (Joe Biden) -130
- Republican Candidate (Donald Trump) +100
Meanwhile, on the major online sportsbooks, the odds for Joe Biden to win the overall election have him at -170.
Overall Election Odds
- Joe Biden -170
- Donald Trump +130
This is because of the fact that Biden doesn’t actually need to win North Carolina in order to reach 270 electoral votes.
Trump, on the other hand, absolutely does. Per ABC News, “the Trump campaign is increasingly worried that the president's chances of winning North Carolina, a state the team has heavily invested in and views as essential for Trump's path to victory, has all but evaporated.”
However, ABC also notes that the Trump campaign is outwardly confident, with communications director Tim Murtagh saying:
“The President is going to win North Carolina and we feel very solid about it.”
What Is The State Of The Race In NC?
North Carolina is a state that traditionally goes for the Republican party, but this year, polling suggests that Joe Biden is leading by a small margin.
As of Tuesday, October 20th, FiveThirtyEight projects Joe Biden to receive 50.8 percent of the vote, with President Trump receiving 48.4 percent.
They give Biden a 67% chance to win the state, modeling the election 40,000 times.
This lead started opening up around October 4th, which was around the time when President Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19.
Right now, the FiveThirtyEight polling averages have Biden with 49.1% and Trump with 46.1% - a three-point Biden lead, but one that doesn’t see him cracking 50%.
What NC’s Results Could Mean For The Rest Of The US
North Carolina announces the full count of votes - both mail-in and election day votes - on election day, and it’s on the east coast.
This means that bettors will know who wins NC fairly early on in the process, and there won’t be any drawn-out vote counting in the state. This is a big part of why it can serve as a useful bellwether for those betting on election day.
Election bettors will have to see how the state plays out on election day, and once that happens, they can start making moves on other odds if they are still open for wagering.
North Carolina might very well be the first domino to fall.