Betting On The US Open Based On Historical & Relevant Stats

  • Seven of the last nine majors have been won by golfers who had odds ranked inside the top ten of that tournament.
  • Of the 10 golfers with the shortest odds at the U.S. Open, Rory McIlroy stands out as the best bet when comparing key statistics.

BROOKLINE, Mass. – 49 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world tee off on Thursday at the U.S. Open. Taking place at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, plenty of storylines in golf are swirling around, but the most prevalent storyline of all is who is going to win.

2022 U.S. Open Odds

  • Rory McIlroy +1000
  • Justin Thomas +1200
  • Scottie Scheffler +1400
  • Jon Rahm +1600
  • Cameron Smith +2000
  • Sam Burns +2200
  • Will Zalatoris +2200
  • Xander Schauffele +2200
  • Jordan Spieth +2500
  • Patrick Cantlay +2500
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +2800

Making Predictions Based On Recent Major Winners

Betting on the PGA Tour events and betting on Majors are two totally different categories. Less pressure-packed environments and lesser playing fields make non-major events conducive to large upsets, but viewing each major since the start of 2020 shows that is not the case on golf’s biggest stages.

Each Major Winner Since 2020

Major Winner Pre-Tournament Odds Odds Rank
2022 PGA Championship Justin Thomas +1600 T-3
2022 Masters Scottie Scheffler +1600 T-3
2021 Open Championship Collin Morikawa +3000 T-8
2021 U.S. Open Jon Rahm +1000 1
2021 PGA Championship Phil Mickelson +25000 T-68
2021 Masters Hideki Matsuyama +6000 T-18
2020 U.S. Open Bryson DeChambeau +2500 7
2020 PGA Championship Collin Morikawa +3000 10
2020 Masters Dustin Johnson +800 2

Since the start of 2020, seven of the nine majors have been won by golfers whose odds were among the 10 shortest offered by online sportsbooks prior to the event. Phil Mickelson has had the longest odds of any recent major winner, and looking back that may seem absurd given his resume.

Cutting field to the ten favorites at the U.S. Open is a logical starting point.

Separating The Favorites At The U.S. Open

According to Avery Perri of the Toronto Star, the most important statistics to focus on when predicting the U.S. Open are strokes gained off the tee (OTT) and strokes gained around the green (ARG). Ranking each U.S. Open favorite by combining their strokes gained OTT and ARG helps the clear favorite rise to the top.

Sorting Favorites Based On Strokes Gained OTT And ARG

Name OTT ARG OTT + ARG Odds
Rory McIlroy 0.878 0.537 1.415 +1000
Jon Rahm 1.082555556 -0.074155556 1.0084 +1600
Scottie Scheffler 0.374 0.533 0.908 +1400
Justin Thomas 0.494 0.330 0.824 +1200
Will Zalatoris 0.747 0.058 0.806 +2200
Jordan Spieth 0.406 0.387 0.794 +2500
Patrick Cantlay 0.546 0.226 0.772 +2500
Xander Schauffele 0.259 0.278 0.537 +2200
Sam Burns 0.056 0.106 0.163 +2200
Cameron Smith -0.219390244 0.364 0.145 +2000

Key Differences Among The Top Betting Options

  • Rory McIlroy is the clear favorite when betting on the U.S. Open with nearly a half-stroke advantage over all other betting favorites.
  • Jon Rahm, the favorite with the second most combined strokes gained OTT and ARG, is closer to seventh-ranked Patrick Cantlay than Rory.
  • Of the entire U.S. Open field, Adri Arnaus (+20000) is the only golfer better than McIlroy when comparing OTT and ARG results.