Denver Broncos Special Odds Are A Trap, But A Fixable One

  • The Denver Broncos have +850 odds to win the AFC in 2022-23.
  • One sportsbook gave the Miami Dolphins +150 odds to win more games than the Broncos.
  • A parlay of Denver’s Under and Miami’s Over yields a similar wager, but at +257 odds, which is far better.

DENVER – Sportsbooks are offering two wagers that seem to suggest that the Denver Broncos might be worse than their odds indicate.

Denver Broncos Special Odds Via Bovada

  • Miami To Win More Games Than Denver +150
  • Jacksonville To Win More Games Than Denver +325

The first place one might look when attempting to analyze these odds would be the odds for each respective team to win the AFC, which can be used as a proxy for team quality, of sorts.

AFC Conference Winner Odds – Broncos, Dolphins, Jaguars

  • Denver Broncos +850
  • Miami Dolphins +1800
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +6600

NFL odds from Bovada of +850 imply a 10.5% chance of an event occurring, while odds of +1800 imply a 5.3% chance of an event occurring, and odds of +6600 yields a 1.5% implied probability.

Based on this, it is slightly more than twice as likely that the Broncos win the AFC than the Miami Dolphins do, and seven times as likely that the Broncos win the AFC than the Jacksonville Jaguars do.

By this proxy, it seems like taking Miami or Jacksonville to win more games than Denver is not a good bet at these odds, but anyone who is interested in these wagers could be in luck, as parlays at some online sportsbooks can get you better bets than these props.

Denver Broncos Regular Season Wins Odds

  • Over 10 -110
  • Under 10 -120

Miami Dolphins Regular Season Wins Odds

  • Over 9 -105
  • Under 9 -125

Jacksonville Jaguars Regular Season Wins Odds

  • Over 6 -130
  • Under 6 EVEN

 

Looking at these numbers, instead of taking the Jaguars to have more wins than the Broncos straight up, something that the AFC odds analysis already determined was a poor wager, it’s better value to parlay the Jags over 6 and the Broncos under 10.

This would give a bettor a parlay with a payout of +224 odds, which is less than the +325 of the original wager, but provides you a much larger cushion.

With Miami, the advantage of this method is even more stark – a bettor could parlay Miami over 9 with Denver under 10 and get +257 odds on that wager.

Note that this is effectively the exact same wager as wagering on Miami to have more wins than Denver, but instead of at +150, the wager is set at +257.

Even if your sportsbook won’t let you parlay the two together, straight bets on Denver under 10 and Miami would almost double your money while limiting your risk, which is still better than the +150 odds offered in the original wager.