How The 2020 Election Will Come Down To Florida, Pennsylvania

  • Joe Biden has -190 odds to win the presidential election on November 3rd.
  • The Democrats have -275 odds to win Pennsylvania, a swing state.
  • Dems have -135 odds to win Florida, which is also incredibly important - and notably closer.

LAS VEGAS - Joe Biden is favored to win the presidential election on November 3rd. This comes on the heels of a fairly major polling bump for Biden in the wake of the first debate and the President’s COVID-19 diagnosis.

Presidential elections are composed of individual state races. The idea is that a candidate wins a state, and thus their electoral votes, by getting more votes than their opponent in the state.

Due to this, looking at individual state betting odds and polling is a good way to examine the odds for the election as a whole.

This article will go over two of the most important states, and examine how their odds compare to the odds of each candidate to win the election as a whole.

Stats and polling in this article were sourced from FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, while odds were sourced from Bovada’s sportsbook.

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Odds

  • Joe Biden -190
  • Donald Trump +155

Polling Averages

  • Biden - 52.3%
  • Trump - 41.8%

Joe Biden has -190 odds to win the presidential election and a 10-point polling lead. For comparison’s sake, at this time in 2016, Hillary Clinton had about a 6-point polling lead.

When examining the states, it’s important to understand that they don’t exist in a vacuum. Biden winning Florida, for example, would likely indicate that he did well in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well - because he’s more ahead in PA and WI than he is in FL.

This is because of the trends that would be playing out that would cause such a victory - which would presumably be happening everywhere.

Biden winning a state like Georgia would likely indicate a massive electoral college victory.

By contrast, Trump winning Wisconsin would likely spell doom for the Biden campaign, just as it did for the Clinton campaign in 2016.

With that, let’s get to the states.

Pennsylvania

  • 25.4 % Chance Of Being Tipping Point State Per FiveThirtyEight
  • Odds To Go Blue: -275
  • Odds To Go Red: +200
  • Dem Forecasted Vote Share: 52.8
  • Rep Forecasted Vote Share: 46.5

Pennsylvania is the state that is the most likely to decide the election.

Biden winning Pennsylvania would not only deliver him a large number of electoral votes, but it would also indicate that he is probably doing well in the states he is polling better than PA in, such as Wisconsin and Nevada.

A Biden win in PA would be the first thing to look for in terms of forecasting this election as it stands.

If Trump wins PA, it would likely mean a Trump win, as he is polling worse in PA than he is in states like Florida and Arizona.

Despite the fact that, as of right now, PA is probably the most important state to win, the odds for the general election are pretty out of whack with PA’s odds.

The Dems have a -275 chance of picking up PA, while nationally, Joe Biden only has -190 odds to win.

If Biden wins PA, it seems fairly likely that he will win - and this discrepancy doesn’t seem to have been accounted for in the overall odds.

Biden’s polling in PA is worse than his national polling, but he has much shorter odds to win PA than he does nationally.

This is definitely something for political bettors to keep an eye on.

Florida

  • 14.4 % Chance Of Being Tipping Point State Per FiveThirtyEight
  • Odds To Go Blue: -135
  • Odds To Go Red: +105
  • Dem Forecasted Vote Share: 51.3
  • Rep Forecasted Vote Share: 47.9

Florida is the state that is the second most likely to represent the tipping point in the election.

Florida is much better news for President Trump than Pennsylvania, in terms of both odds at online sportsbooks and polling. He’s still well within striking distance in Florida, with +105 odds and a polling deficit of 4.4 points.

Florida is the swing state that has the most inbuilt advantages for Trump, given his relatively high numbers among the latino population and his domination of exurban counties in 2016.

The polling suggests a Biden win in FL, but there are still three weeks to go, and if the race tightens, Florida could be well within the margin of error.

After all, the polling also suggested that Hillary Clinton would win.

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