- The Detroit Tigers pulled off one of the biggest upsets in MLB history.
- Since 2004, MLB underdogs at +345 or higher are 10-9 against their opponents.
- Oddsmakers didn’t regress, still giving the Astros -550 odds heading into the last game of the series which paid out.
HOUSTON – Things were turned upside down in the betting world Wednesday night, as the largest MLB upset occurred since the 2007 season.
Sitting at +435 when the game began, the team with the fewest wins, the Detroit Tigers, took on the team with the third-most wins, the Houston Astros. As expected with Justin Verlander on the mound, the pitching ace delivered another beautiful game, striking out 11 – the seventh straight game recording at least 10 –and only allowing 2 runs in the process.
However, that wasn’t enough for the Astros who fell to the Tigers by 1 run, marking one of the largest upsets in MLB history.
Sportsbooks all around the country banked on this wild outcome, as The Mirage lost almost $120,000 on two wagers alone. Both of these bets saw the bettor take the Astros at -550 or higher, and both laid at least $50,000 in hopes to win over $10,000.
However, those who studied gambling habits would have been wearier to lay their money on the heavy favorite. With teams being +345 or higher in the MLB since 2004, the underdog is 10-9 in those games, rewarding those crazy enough with sizeable payouts.
This loss did not change the mindset of gamblers and USA online sportsbooks alike, though, as the fourth and final game of the Tigers-Astros series saw similar odds. The Astros were -550 (Tigers +430) as Gerrit Cole and Jordan Zimmermann took the mound for their respective teams on Thursday night.
Bookmakers and the betting public were on trend as the Astros ultimately won the series. However, it is safe to say many bettors and oddsmakers were more fixated on this game than the previous three due to the huge upset.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.