- In Week 1, 12 of the 16 underdogs covered the spread and nine won straight up.
- The UNDER hit in nine of the 16 games in Week 1.
- All three teams favored by over a touchdown won on the moneyline but only one covered the spread.
LAS VEGAS - The first week of the NFL season showed that not many odds were accurate in predicting the outcomes. Sportsbooks were inaccurate and the public was unable to take advantage of their mistakes. Maybe Week 2 will be different.
Underdogs Were On Fire In Week 1
The favorites had a rough time covering the spread in Week 1 as online sportsbooks saw 12 of the 16 underdogs win their game against the spread. Not only were underdogs covering, but they were winning straight up as well.
Nine of the 12 underdogs who covered were able to win on the moneyline. This may bring betting value to underdogs as a whole this weekend, however, there is a subsection of underdogs that has an even stronger trend.
Five games had a closing spread of 3.5 points in Week 1. In those games, four underdogs won straight up. Looking at the Week 2 games, there are six games that currently have a 3.5-point spread.
NFL Week 2 Games with 3.5-Point Spreads
- New York Giants (+3.5) Vs. The Washington Football Team
- Buffalo Bills Vs. Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
- New Orleans Saints Vs. Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
- Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) Vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) Vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Baltimore Ravens (+3.5)
It’s early in the season and this trend is unlikely to hold up for the entire year but with +150 to +170 odds on the underdog’s moneyline in these games, it could be worth backing for Week 2.
The UNDER Was Hitting At A High Rate
The UNDER hit in nine of the 16 games during the opening week but maybe the more important trend is that it was hitting in the games with the lowest totals, while the OVER was hitting in the games with the highest totals.
There were three games with totals that closed below 45 points, all three went UNDER. Four games had a closing total north of 50 points and three hit the OVER. For Week 2 sports betting sites have three games with a total below 45 points and five games with a total above 50 points.
NFL Week 2 Games With Total Below 45.0
- New York Giants vs. The Washington Football Team: O/U 40.5
- New England Patriots vs. New York Jets: O/U 42.0
- New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers: O/U 44.5
Bettors may want to look deeper into the UNDER for these games.
NFL Week 2 Games With Total Above 50.0
- Atlanta Falcons Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: O/U 52.0
- Minnesota Vikings Vs. Atlanta Falcons: O/U 51.0
- Dallas Cowboys Vs. Los Angeles Chargers: O/U 55.5
- Tennessee Titans Vs. Seattle Seahawks: O/U 54.0
- Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Baltimore Ravens: O/U 55.0
These games may see the OVER hit if the betting trends from Week 1 stay true.
Big Favorites Won Straight Up, But Struggled To Cover
Week 1 saw three games close with a spread larger than a touchdown. All three of the favorites won the game, but the Los Angeles Rams were the only team able to cover the spread. Week 2 has another three games that have spreads larger than 7.0 points.
Week 2 NFL Games With Spread Larger Than 7.0
- Cleveland Browns (-13.0) Vs Houston Texans
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5) Vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Green Bay Packers (-11.5) Vs. Detroit Lions
A parlay on the three favorites' moneylines would pay out a price around -185, while a 6-point teaser would have a +150 payout. Sports bettors could even make a 10-point teaser on the three teams and still net a -130 return.
Nick got involved with the world of sports at a young age and never turned his back on it. He graduated from Penn State University with a degree in Broadcast/Journalism. In his free time, you can catch him at the bottom of the leaderboards on any video game he’s playing.