- The Green Bay Packers beating the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl has +350 odds.
- The odds are only that long because the bet would require both teams winning on Sunday in addition to a specific Super Bowl winner in order to cash.
- Analysis indicates that these wagers could be poor value.
LAS VEGAS - Sportsbooks have released odds on predicting the specific outcomes of the Super Bowl.
Effectively, these odds serve as mildly advanced parlay wagering, and they can be quite rewarding in terms of picking the correct teams.
Let’s take a look at the current Super Bowl LV odds at BetOnline
Exact Super Bowl LV Outcome - BetOnline
- Green Bay Packers win over Kansas City Chiefs +350
- Kansas City Chiefs win over Green Bay Packers +350
- Green Bay Packers win over Buffalo Bills +450
- Kansas City Chiefs win over Tampa Bay Buccaneers +500
- Buffalo Bills win over Green Bay Packers +550
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over Buffalo Bills +775
- Buffalo Bills win over Tampa Bay Buccaneers +800
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over Kansas City Chiefs +800
The first thing that stands out when looking at these NFL odds is that they roughly correlate to the odds of each individual team winning the Super Bowl.
The Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs both have +200 odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills (+325) slightly edge the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+375).
Given this, it’s not surprising that the top four outcomes involve the Chiefs or the Packers winning the Super Bowl - even with Patrick Mahomes in the concussion protocol.
The big question for sports bettors is whether or not these odds provide value, and for that, we have to look at what this bet actually is. Effectively, this is a parlay bet wherein the parlay is picking the winners of the two games this week, and the winner of the Super Bowl.
Let’s use the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beating the Buffalo Bills as an example. The sportsbooks give this +775 odds.
If that happened, the following wagers would cash (using odds from the same sportsbook, BetOnline):
- Bucks over Packers at +157
- Bills over Chiefs at +142
- Bucs to win Super Bowl at +375
Taking these three on a Parlay would lead to a payout of $2854.21 on a $100 bet.
Let’s look at a more likely example, the Chiefs over the Packers. In order for that to happen, the following bets would cash:
- Chiefs over Bills at -162
- Packers over Bucs at -177
- Chiefs to win Super Bowl at +200
This would lead to a parlay payout of $669 on a $100 bet.
So, these wagers would not provide as much value as parlaying all of the components of them together. However, online sportsbooks generally do not allow parlays involving futures odds, so this exercise remains purely theoretical.
What does this tell an aspiring sports bettor, though?
There are two main conclusions to be drawn:
The sportsbooks are getting the better side of all of these wagers, by a lot.
The wagers still provide some value, as you are not allowed to parlay all of their components.
Whether or not these wagers are worth looking at will depend on the disposition and bankroll management technique of any individual wagerer.
These might not be the best tool for picking individual outcomes in terms of value, but they are the only tool available.
For some, that’s enough. For others, value is king.