- Bettors looking to make Super Bowl parlays are considering the odds of correlated parlays between the game-winner and the over/under.
- Data shows the most likely correlated parlay for the Super Bowl would be to take the Buccaneers spread, and the under for the game, which has hit a combined 12 times between these two teams this season.
TAMPA, Fla. - When it comes to betting the Super Bowl, many bettors will try to hit it big with parlays.
Parlay bets allow players to combine and multiply their bets into a much larger payout by heavily increasing the risk of the bet. For a parlay to hit, every separate bet included in the ticket must be correct in order to receive a win.
Many over the years have called the parlay a sucker bet. Bookies use the high payout numbers to distract bettors into taking parlays that have extremely low chances of actually winning.
That is, unless a bettor has done their research to create the perfect correlated parlay.
A correlated parlay is typically a two-leg parlay bet where the second leg of the bet has an increased chance to hit if the first leg of the bet wins. Basically, if the first wager wins, the chances for the second bet to win are also favorable.
The general parlay payout on most online sportsbooks on two-team parlays is 2.5-to-1 or +250. This means that, over time, a bettor would have to hit 28.6% of their correlated parlays in order to turn a profit.
If a bettor hits one leg of the parlay at a 50% rate, the second leg of the event needs to be able to be correct just 57.2% of the time to be profitable. Multiplying these two rates (.50 x .572) gets to the desired number of 28.6 percent.
So which wagers are the most likely candidates for a profitable Super Bowl parlay?
Keeping things simple, there is a worthwhile parlay using just the spread and point total for this year’s Super Bowl.
Currently, the spread sits at -3 to Kansas City, with the point total of 56.0 at the majority of Super Bowl betting sites.
Super Bowl LV – 2/7/21 6:30 p.m. EST
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (-115)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (-105)
- Over/Under: 56.0 (-110)
Looking back at this season’s results, each team had four potential outcomes for every single game they played: A win or loss on the spread, and an over or under on the point total.
For the Chiefs, they went 8-10 against the spread this season. In the eight instances where they covered the spread, four of those games the total went over, and four of those games the total went under. In the 10 games where they lost ATS, the over hit four times and the under hit six times.
Therefore, the most likely outcome for the Chiefs this season has been an ATS loss with an under on the point total.
For the Buccaneers, they went 11-8 ATS in 2020. In their 11 wins against the spread, they hit the over five times, and the under six times. In their 8 ATS losses, they hit the over six times, and the under just twice.
The most likely outcome for the Bucs this past year was tied between an ATS win combined with the under, and an ATS loss combined with the over, which both occurred six times.
Additionally, the previous meeting between these two teams in Week 12 ended in a close Chiefs win 27-24. A game that Tony Romo believed had Super Bowl potential.
— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) February 3, 2021
That game went to the underdog on the spread, with the Bucs covering +3.5, and hitting the under.
Now, bettors can put these puzzle pieces together to find the most likely outcome for Super Bowl 55.
When combining the results for both teams, the most common outcome is that of an underdog covering the spread and the under hitting. This outcome hit a combined 12 times between the Bucs and the Chiefs, the most of any other number.
The Chiefs hit the under consistently this season when they failed to cover the spread. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was able to establish a trend towards the under in games where they covered.
Those that favor the Chiefs could consider the second most likely option, the favorite on the spread and the over point total, which has hit 10 times between the two teams.
What all this confusing positioning comes down to is this: In games where the Buccaneers cover, the under hits. In games where the Chiefs cover, the over hits.
Now, once the game in underway, live Super Bowl betting players will have a chance to hedge their correlated parlay. In the unlikely scenario that the Bucs are dominating, or that the under is looking great, bettors can hedge their parlay by live betting the opposite side of their remaining leg.
Say the Bucs are up two touchdowns in the fourth, but the under is in danger. Bettors can then live bet on the over at sites like Bovada in order to come out on top as a winner no matter what. It is moves like these that keep bettors profitable long term.
Those looking to fill out a profitable Super Bowl parlay will be able to use this information to make the best possible bet this Super Bowl Sunday.
Jimmy Reinman honed his skills across various mediums including print, radio, and broadcast before bringing his arsenal of knowledge to the team here at USAOnlineSportsbooks in 2020. When he’s not writing, you can find him in a state of focused stress on any College Football Saturday, or maniacally constructing NBA parlays on a cool spring evening.