- Max Holloway is slightly favored over Dustin Poirier on Saturday night, getting -133 odds to win outright.
- Dustin Poirier has defeated Holloway two times in his career, most recently in 2019.
NEW ORLEANS – The BMF Belt is on the line this weekend at UFC 318 as Dustin Poirier seeks to hold the title for the first time in his career, facing a familiar foe in Max Holloway.
Holloway vs Poirier Fight Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | -5.5 (+145) | -133 | O 4.5 (-165) |
| Dustin Poirier | +5.5 (-190) | +112 | U 4.5 (+125) |
Online sportsbooks give Max Holloway the slight edge to defeat Dustin Poirier in their third meeting on Saturday night. Sportsbooks give the fight -165 odds to go over 4.5 rounds, essentially meaning they expect it to go the distance.
Head To Head History
This will be the third fight between Poirier and Holloway, each of the first two going in favor of Poirier. He won the first fight in 2012 by submission in the first round and the second in 2019 by unanimous decision.
Recent Fights
Since the last time they faced, each has won just over half of their fights, Poirier going 5-4 while Holloway has gone 6-4. Both fighters lost their last match entering this one.
Three of Poirier’s five victories came by way of KO/TKO, with one by submission and one by unanimous decision. He has been susceptible to early finishes however, with three of his four losses coming by submission and one by KO/TKO.
Holloway had a long stretch of either winning or losing by decision with seven straight fights going the distance before his last three, which all ended by KO/TKO. Holloway knocked out Chan Sung Jung and Justin Gaethje before being knocked out by current double champion Ilia Topuria.
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What The Odds Tell Us
The most likely outcomes according to UFC sportsbooks would be either fighter to win by decision, Max Holloway slightly edging out Poirier at +170, while Poirier’s odds to win by decision sit at +350.
However, the odds indicate that if this fight was to be stopped before the expiration of the final round, the most likely outcome would be Poirier by stoppage in the first round at +1000. Holloway has the same odds to win by stoppage in the first round that Poirier has to win in the second round (+1200).
Similarly, Poirier has +385 odds to win within the first three rounds compared to Holloway’s +500 odds to do so, while Holloway has +125 odds to win in the fourth round or later, shorter than Poirier’s +225.
This fight could truly go either way, but bettors should look to Poirier to win in the first three rounds at +385 for the best bet. Three of his five wins since the last Holloway fight were decided in the first three rounds and he has defeated Holloway in one round before, granted it came in 2012.
Drew is currently a student at Florida State University majoring in Communication / Media Studies. He enjoys playing, watching, reading, and writing about sports. If you need to know anything about football or basketball, Drew’s your guy.
