Betting On MLB Baseball - Tips, Strategies, And More
Betting on MLB baseball is a rewarding long term experience, predicated on the normally extensive MLB season. With each team playing 162 games in a normal season, there is a lot of value in statistical analysis when it comes to MLB betting. This year, of course, the season is expected to be shorter (but longer than the 60-game season in 2020). That said, the same principle still applies - baseball is the major sport that is most easy to comprehend via statistics.
The best way to get started betting on baseball is to work on understanding which games you should bet on. Don’t worry if it looks a little complex at first - we get it, there’s a lot of numbers - but baseball is really deceptively simple to analyze and bet on. When it comes to wagering, you have a ton of different options for MLB sportsbooks, all over the globe. This article will cover the best places to wager on the MLB, as well as some of the basics of betting on baseball. From knowing which sportsbooks to use and how to bet on baseball, this baseball betting guide will serve as a great introduction to betting on America’s pastime.
MLB Underdog Pick of the Day – 10/19/2021
The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros combined for 15 runs last night but somehow weren’t able to combine for more than 17 hits. As we come off of a loss, the MLB Underdog Pick of the Day will be betting on the ALCS teams’ hot bats.
Red Sox vs Astros Total
- Over 10.0 -105
- Under 10.0 -115
Five of the seven Red Sox playoffs games have had at least 10 runs scored in them while five of the seven Astros games have done so as well. Zack Greinke faced Boston once this season and allowed four runs in three innings and the Astros and Red Sox’s pitching staffs have the worst ERA of teams remaining in the postseason (HOU: 6.05 ERA, BOS: 4.26 ERA).
Current 2021 World Series Odds
Diving into the 2021 World Series odds, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been the favorites to win from the start of the season and have remained at the top of the odds board. Following the Dodgers though, it has been a frenzy as different teams have moved in and out of the second shortest odds. Currently following the Dodgers are the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, and Houston Astros who all have odds under +1000. All in all, it is best to get in on World Series betting as soon as possible for the best possible odds scenario. With the season already well into the second half, the time to get in on any World Series odds is now before they shorten any more.
2021 World Series Odds
- Los Angeles Dodgers +325
- San Francisco Giants +500
- Houston Astros +550
- Tampa Bay Rays +600
- Milwaukee Brewers +700
- Chicago White Sox +725
- Atlanta Braves +1600
- Boston Red Sox +1600
- New York Yankees +1800
- Toronto Blue Jays +1800
- St. Louis Cardinals +2500
- Philadelphia Phillies +4500
Best MLB Sportsbooks
The best MLB sportsbooks may be offered in Las Vegas, Philadelphia, and Biloxi, or could be found strictly online. Depending on what you are looking for out of your online betting site, the different options will come with their own advantages and drawbacks. Being able to shop lines on the MLB across all sportsbooks certainly helps, which is why we give the bump to the online sportsbooks. With futures odds on the MLB, ways to bet on win totals, and the MVP, these MLB betting sites keep the betting action thriving throughout the season.
Bovada Sportsbook - Best Sportsbook For MLB Betting
At Bovada, MLB bettors are given over five dozen MLB betting types on every game! With props such as first inning scoring and margin of victory, bettors can also take multiple lines on the run total, spread, and more. Be sure to check out their MLB specials as well, as the season’s top news can be bet on. Bovada offers h2h comparisons on Major League Baseball, giving bettors the slight edge they may need to make a bet work.
BetOnline Sportsbook - Great MLB Odds and Props!
BetOnline offers some of the best odds for pro baseball ranging from more than the run line, moneyline and run total. With individual team scoring, adjusted run lines, and R+H+E bets, there is plenty to find at BetOnline. Their MLB player futures odds cover MVP and CY Young races, division leaders, and more. For those baseball lovers, they can also find access to Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) betting or Korean Baseball Organization (KBO).
SportsBetting.ag Sportsbook - Trusted Site for Betting on MLB Baseball
For those looking for a basic betting platform, SportsBetting is the one to go to. While it is not basic in terms of security or abilities, the easy and organized design gives MLB bettors an easy route to home plate. With grand salami odds or daily props regarding the home and away teams’ run total, laying action at SportsBetting is a breeze. Be sure to check out how the lines move at SportsBetting, as they are often the best bet for MLB favorites.
MyBookie Sportsbook - Best New Online Sportsbook For MLB Wagering
MLB odds are all over MyBookie from World Series matchups to game props and even season-long contests. Baseball bettors will enjoy their time at MyBookie, as they even post daily news articles that help bettors with statistical information and even introduce them to additional free picks. With betting analysis built right in with the site, it’s a winning combination for the casual or major baseball betting fanatic. Try your skill at MyBookie today!
Xbet Sportsbook - MLB Live Betting
XBet is an excellent sportsbook for sports bettors looking to spice up the MLB season and playoffs. MLB is known for its long, dragging seasons (this year being an exception), and what better way to make them interesting than some fun wagering! XBet provides a platform for all the wagers you’d want to make on the MLB, and then some. In addition, XBet prides itself on offering fun prop bets for your enjoyment.
MLB Baseball Betting Strategies
With each baseball bettor comes their own intensive strategy. Some take it more seriously than others but every experienced gambler has developed some type of strategy for betting on MLB baseball. With plenty of games in the MLB season, be sure to stay on top of MLB injury reports and pitching rotations. Understanding how a team has played in the past few games as opposed to the full season can also keep bettors in tune with proper betting situations. The number one betting strategy in baseball is to focus on the pitching.
For example, in 2020, Mookie Betts was one of the best hitters in the game, but he had serious troubles against left handed pitching. This meant that in games where Mookie was against a LHP, one could reasonably fade him a bit as a hitting threat. Similarly, his struggles against LHP contributed to the Dodgers’ overall struggles against LHP. Another example would be Tyler Glasnow in the World Series. Glasnow is a firethrower, a guy who can hit 99 MPH regularly on his fastball. However, he’s also a guy who has an ERA above 4.00, and when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. This was borne out in both of his starts against the Dodgers, in which they scored more than 3.5 runs each time. The Dodgers as a team were a) good against RHP (they had an OPS almost 0.050 higher against RHP) and b) built to hit home runs(118 in 60 games).
These are just some examples of how one can use pitching and hitting matchups in order to bet on MLB games. There are a ton of statistical analysis methods out there for taking a look at pitchers and batters, and they are widely available. All you have to do is start doing the research and understanding what the statistics mean, and you can find some edges pretty quickly.
Tips For Betting On MLB Baseball
Consistent Betting Bankroll – Most experienced bettors bet anywhere from 1-5% of their total budget on a single MLB game, but the majority of the time, it sits around 2%. Don’t run out of money in the opening month of the season.
Research The Numbers – MLB and statistics are codependent on each other. MLB stats and advanced numbers can detail loads of information about MLB betting trends and team or player performance. Don’t miss out on this free information.
Stick To Dominant Pitchers – It can always be tough to not bet on certain days, but following certain pitchers can help MLB bettors stay in the positive. Their records are often of 20 wins or more, so taking the favorite in these scenarios can pay out easy.
MLB Betting Consensus
Always be cognizant of the MLB line movements. If the public’s money is pushing a baseball line hard in one direction, this MLB betting consensus gives information to the bettor. New bettors may not understand how to follow the money, but experienced gamblers and sharps can be ahead of the changing odds, and understand just how far they will move. Often, online sportsbooks will offer extreme baseball longshots and in the long run, these underdog odds tend to pay off.
Mobile Betting On Major League Baseball
Watching the games is stressful enough which is what makes mobile betting on the MLB that much more of a luxury for sports bettors. Many state-sanctioned sportsbooks have platforms that can be used via mobile applications. There are also offshore sports betting sites that can be accessed on any kind of mobile device making betting on the MLB games quick and easy for a member of any one of these websites to do nationwide.
Once gamblers become members of these sports betting outlets, they will find a ton of wagers listed for Major League Baseball matchups. From there, they can do everything from pick wagers to depositing money and requesting payouts through their cellphones. For mobile sports betting on the MLB, no downloads are required as they are accessed through the internet using a phone to do so. Everyone is eligible to join these sportsbook operations legally and begin betting on MLB games. Now, this type of gambling is more of a necessity than ever because of social distancing due to COVID-19. Fans are still able to get their action in through mobile betting on all of the MLB lineups.
2021 MLB Player Prop Betting
One of the great things about betting on MLB is that there are so many players to wager on, and so many props to take a look at. Right now, the online sportsbooks are offering all sorts of different wager types for bettors to take a shot at, from bets on how many home runs a given hitter will hit, to how many wins a pitcher will get, and more. Let’s take a look at some of the possible wagers, and explore how to approach betting on them.
We’ll start with Ronald Acuña Jr. one of the truest stars in Major League Baseball, an elite player all around the ballpark. Acuña has odds on many of his different outcomes, so he’s a great example for how to look at statistical information and apply it to wagering. A word of warning: there are a lot of different ways to apply statistics to betting, and a lot of different statistics to apply - make sure to find your own methods too!
Atlanta Braves - Ronald Acuña Jr. - 2021 Regular Season Total Runs
- Over 109.5 -115
- Under 109.5 -115
Acuña’s Baseball Reference projections are a great place to start when it comes to examining wagers like this. Baseball Reference projects Acuña to have 97 runs in the 201 regular season, which is far lower than his O/U line is here. In 2019, Acuña scored 127 runs, and that was his only full season. It should be noted that it seems as though Baseball Reference expects that season to be an outlier - although Acuña’s OPS+ actually went up in the shortened 2020 season.
Atlanta Braves - Ronald Acuña Jr. - 2021 Regular Season Batting Average
- Over .285 -115
- Under .285 -115
When it comes to batting average, history can be a solid guide. Acuña’s career batting average is .281, and he’s only batted above .285 in one season in his three year career - his rookie year in 2018. Since then, he’s become a more dangerous hitter, but not necessarily a hitter that hits for average. Baseball Reference projects him for a batting average of .276 in 2021, and that seems about in range - he could plausibly hit the over, but he most likely won’t, based on these numbers.
Atlanta Braves - Ronald Acuña Jr. - 2021 Regular Season Total Home Runs
- Over 38.5 -120
- Under 38.5 -110
Remember when we said that Acuña had become a more dangerous hitter, but not necessarily one that hit for average? His home runs are why. In the 2019 season, he smacked 41 dingers, and in his 46 games in 2021, he put 14 balls out of the park. He’s a real threat to go yard, and if he plays in most of the 162 games in the season, he’ll be able to get this number. However, it doesn’t seem as though he’s projected for that. In the 2019 season, he had 715 plate appearances, while in the 2021 season, he’s projected to see only 544. With a player like Acuña, the home runs are a function of volume, and the potential of injury looms over a wager like this.
Atlanta Braves - Ronald Acuña Jr. - 2021 Regular Season Total RBI's
- Over 95.5 -115
- Under 95.5 -115
RBI’s are another intriguing wager, because they’re also a function of volume, meaning that if Acuña does not get injured, and stays on the field for enough games, he should be able to hit this number. He hit it in 2019, driving in 101 runs. However, even a slight statistical regression, or a minor injury, would put him under this line, and it’s worth examining in that context as well. Baseball Reference - and its fairly low projected volume for him - shows him with 77 RBI at the end of 2021.
Now that we’ve taken a look at how to approach wagering on hitters with Acuña, let’s examine pitching with the newly minted highest paid player in baseball, Trevor Bauer. Bauer had a spectacular 2020 season, which, while abbreviated, was still significant, and his output was enough to earn him a big contract from the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. However, Bauer’s ERA+ shows last year as a massive outlier, so what will the 2021 season hold for the new Dodgers ace?
Los Angeles Dodgers - Trevor Bauer - 2021 Regular Season ERA
- Over 2.99-115
- Under 2.99-115
Only twice in his career has Bauer had a season-long ERA below 2.99. Once was the abbreviated 2020 season, and once was his All-Star season in 2018. There’s a couple ways to look at this. One is that he’s hit this mark in two of the last three seasons, and the other is that he’s only hit it in those seasons. Baseball Reference projects him for a 3.62 ERA, and that says more about the variance inherent in ERA than it does about Bauer’s abilities.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Trevor Bauer - 2021 Regular Season Total Strikeouts
- Over 230.5 -115
- Under 230.5 -115
Bauer was a strikeout machine in 2021, averaging 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. This was the highest in his career, but not out of range for him, as he’s been a double digit K/9 pitcher since 2017. Baseball Reference has him projected for 215 strikeouts in 2020, over the course of a projected 179 innings pitched. Similar to other counting stats, this will be both a function of the rate at which Bauer strikes people out and the opportunities he has to do so.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Trevor Bauer - 2021 Regular Season Total Wins
- Over 14.5 -115
- Under 14.5 -115
Pitcher wins are a notoriously dodgy stat, and are famously more tied to the team the pitcher plays on than the abilities of the pitcher themselves. They’re arguably one of the more useless statistics in baseball, and it can be tough to predict them based on statistical indicators. That said, Baseball Reference projects Bauer well under 14.5, with 11 wins in 2021. This goes in line with his 2020 performance - he was excellent, good enough to be rewarded with the highest yearly wage in baseball, but went 5-4 in terms of wins.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Trevor Bauer - 2021 Regular Season WHIP
- Over 1.10 -115
- Under 1.10 -115
When looking at Bauer’s career WHIP, once again the same two seasons stick out - 2018 and 2020. Those are the only seasons in which he has posted a WHIP under 1.10, but they are also two of the three most recent seasons. In 2020, he was under 0.8, let alone 1.10, with a WHIP of 0.795. Baseball Reference projects him at a 1.162 WHIP, which would be one of the best seasons of his career, but not up to the standards of either 2018 or 2020. Bauer has a shot at this one, especially if he can bring his 2020 form into 2021.
When it comes to wagering on MLB player props, you should have noticed a few throughlines in each of these sections. First, make sure you back up your underlying assumptions with statistics. Second, make sure you understand that baseball is a game of averages, and even the best players go on hot streaks and cold streaks that average out to their season. Finally, utilize projection tools - Baseball Reference is far from the only one, and you can compare between them to get a better picture of what a player’s season might look like. Using these skills, you should be able to approach each player’s prop betting with a data oriented mindset.
Live Betting On Major League Baseball
Live betting on Major League Baseball (MLB) is one of the more exciting ways to bet on the games for any sports bettor. For gamblers that are not baseball fans because the game is “boring” live in-game betting will get them interested in the game really quickly. These wagers are listed on every major sportsbook in the live betting section as a game is happening. There will be multiple bets listed throughout a match and instant gratification (if you win) for bettors gambling this way.
It’s a quick-paced form of betting with odds and wagers changing every second with the flow of the game. Anyone that bets on sports and the MLB, in particular, should try live betting at least once to see what all the hype is about. You’ll be super hyped in the amount of time it takes to place your bet until the end result, which is typically a short adrenaline-filled ride. For that small period of time, it’s as if you were part of the game yourself which is what makes this type of bet so addicting and popular among gamblers. Any sports bettor looking for the most interactive way to gamble on Major League Baseball has found it through live betting wagers on the games.
Final Advice And Tips For Betting On MLB
No matter how one goes about betting on baseball, as long as they stick with their strategies, they can find success. The good thing about baseball is that it’s sort of a statistical playground - there’s so much data about everything that thorough data analysis is easily accessible. Though a baseball betting tactic may not work, finding methods to alter it or a system to control can help a bettor learn and improve. There are an enormous amount of advanced statistical analysis tools for baseball bettors to familiarize themselves with, from OPS+ to WHIP to batting split data and more. Our final advice for betting on MLB is simply - each bettor must figure out their own baseball betting strategy - but make sure it’s based on data. The hard part is figuring out what these numbers actually tell you, and putting them in their proper context.