- Two near misses have only strengthened the case for Daicos, who opens as the +500 Brownlow favorite with plenty of unfinished business.
- Three straight Grand Final appearances and back-to-back premierships make Brisbane at +350 difficult to argue against.
- Geelong face the weight of the Grand Final curse at -150 for a top four finish, despite one of the competition's most potent forward lines.
MELBOURNE - With Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season fast approaching, sportsbooks across the globe are settling on their opening lines. Three markets in particular stand out as worth monitoring before the first bounce.
Bets at a Glance:
- Nick Daicos Brownlow Medal: +500
- Brisbane Lions Grand Final Winner: +350
- Geelong Top 4 Finish: -150
Nick Daicos Brownlow Medal: +500
Few markets spark as much talk before a new season as the Brownlow Medal for Australian Rules Football betting, and in 2026, Nick Daicos at +500 is where the conversation is surrounding. The anticipation surrounding the Collingwood midfielder has not diminished despite back-to-back second-place finishes; all ESPN analysts predict that this will be the year that he finally turns that potential into a medal.
The case is not made any weaker by looking at his 2025 numbers. Daicos finished second in the tournament with 750 disposals at a rate of 30 per game over the course of 25 games. He also led Collingwood in clearances with 155 and recorded 22 goal assists. One of the easier commodities to keep an eye on when the season begins is him because of the competitive lines offered by Australian sportsbooks.
Brisbane Lions Grand Final Winner: +350
With two premierships and three straight Grand Final appearances, Brisbane has solidified its position as the competition's leading team going into 2026. Their +350 line shows that they have a strong midfield depth, a well-organized defense, and no apparent weak points.
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That conclusion is supported by the team statistics for 2025. With 10,033 disposals, Brisbane topped the competition. They also had the most uncontested possessions (6,251) of any team. Their midfield core was among the deepest in the league thanks to Ashcroft, McCluggage, and Dunkley. Brisbane is the most popular choice for individuals who follow the Premiership market on USA online sportsbooks, according to recent September results.
Geelong Top 4 Finish: -150
An awkward question hangs over Geelong as the 2026 season gets underway. Last season's 47-point loss to Brisbane in the Grand Final puts them right in the middle of one of football's most punishing statistical trends. Some truly powerful teams have been lost to this trend over the years: eight of the fourteen teams to lose a Grand Final by 40 points or more have not made it to the finals the following year.
Geelong has a real advantage going into the new season because of the talent pool they still have available. Jeremy Cameron finished 2025 with 88 goals from 26 games, leaving every other forward in the competition chasing shadows as he spent the better part of the year making rival defenses appear utterly unimpressive. Younger talent and seasoned leadership have also been added to the list. Despite the previous statistics working against them, the -150 line in the majority of the AFL betting markets indicates sincere faith in the Cats being in the top four.
Hunter began writing for USAOnlineSportsbooks in 2025 after graduating with a degree in Marketing and Sports Management. As a huge sports fan with extensive hockey knowledge, his focus on sports betting trends and industry analysis seeks to engage and inform readers.
