- Merab Dvalishvili is a heavy favorite (-410 odds) vs Petr Yan but Yan’s striking stats give him hope for an underdog victory.
- Taking Alexandre Pantoja to win and round 2 to start at -155 odds may be the play when he takes on Joshua Van.
- An early undercard fight has Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan in a knockout-expected bout that offers good first-round odds.
PARADISE, Nev. - UFC 323 takes place Saturday in T-Mobile Arena on ESPN+ with the main card beginning at 10 p.m. ET.
As Petr Yan faces off against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event for the second time, UFC online sportsbooks heavily favor Dvalishvili.
| Fighter | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | -410 | O 4.5 (-435) |
| Petr Yan | +305 | U 4.5 (+290) |
With oddsmakers expecting a long fight, the data is there to back them up. Dvalishvili is 14-2 in the UFC (12 by decision) and has only lost a fight before the distance once in his 25-fight pro career. As for Yan, he's never been knocked out or submitted, which is why USA online sportsbooks place -435 odds on the over 4.5 rounds wager.
But is there hope for Yan to be the first to knock out Dvalishvili?
In their 2023 fight, Dvalishvili attempted 49 takedowns, and Yan stuffed 80% of them. If Yan can keep Dvalishvili standing up, he could pull off the major upset.
Yan's switch-stance power, 5.12 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM), and 54% accuracy mean precise, hard shots. For reference, Dvalishvili prefers a low-efficiency but relentless attacking style.
| Stat | Dvalishvili | Yan |
|---|---|---|
| SLpM | 4.33 | 5.12 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 54% |
Yan has dropped Jose Aldo in Round 5 and Cory Sandhagen in the past years. Plus, with Dvalishvili en route to his fourth title defense, Yan is well rested, having had only one fight since last year (a win vs the hard-hitting Marcus McGhee).
With the odds on Dvalishvili to win by decision are -250, look to play spoiler and take Petr Yan to win by decision (+550) or Yan to win by KO, TKO or DQ (+1000) instead.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
Before the main event sits the co-main event, where Alexandre Pantoja is a heavy favorite over Joshua Van.
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| Fighter | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | -240 | O 4.5 (+110) |
| Joshua Van | +200 | U 4.5 (-145) |
As the top challenger in the flyweight division, Pantoja is known to submit opponents or take them the distance. 14-3 in his UFC career, he has 4 performance of the night awards in his last 7 fights.
Meanwhile, Van is 8-1 in UFC (mainly by decision) and this is his fifth fight in the last year. While not having the strongest competition outside as of late, look for Pantoja to get the job done.
- Alexandre Pantoja to Win & Round 2 to Start -155
- Alexandre Pantoja Wins by Decision or Technical Decision+240
Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan
Before the main card starts, an undercard fight takes place at 7:15 p.m. ET: Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan.
Baraniewski moved up to the big show after a 20-second victory on DWCS in Season 9 a few months ago. At 6-0 in his pro career, four have come by way of knockout.
A similar fighting style is there for Aslan: 14 KO/TKO wins in his pro career (though he's only 2-2 in his UFC career).
- Iwo Baraniewski -200
- Ibo Aslan +170
With Baraniewski finishing all fighters in the first round since going pro, an easy parlay addition is this fight to NOT go the distance (-600 odds). However, those wanting to play it straight may like both of these fighters to finish the job in Round 1.
At +170 odds, the best USA sports betting sites favor Iwo Baraniewski to win in Round 1 much more than they expect Ibo Aslan to end it early (+450).
No matter how you bet, be sure to check in early and throughout UFC 323, where the first fight takes place at 6:15 p.m. ET.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.
