2021-2022 NFL Offensive Statistics
If you are a serious NFL bettor, a thirst for knowledge and statistics should be ingrained in your makeup. With the NFL moving more and more into an offensive league, throwing the ball all over the field, there are bound to be some big offensive numbers put up. This is where offensive stats comes in, ranking teams in order from a number of different categories. Whether it's the total number of points scored per game, the number of yards a team puts up, or how many yards per play they make, it can all be important. The key here when checking out offensive statistics for NFL teams are matchups. As a bettor, you want to try to find the matchup that can be had in your advantage. Whether you’re wagering on the 2021 Super Bowl or a Week 9 matchup between the Jaguars and the Titans, betting on the NFL is still all about matchups.
NFL Offensive Statistics And Context
When it comes to measuring the game of football, it can be tough to know where to start. We put this page together to make sure that you knew what kind of NFL statistics you could be looking at for players and teams, when it comes to sports betting. We want to cover the kind of statistics that can influence a spread, a line, or even your fantasy football league. We’ll start with the basics, points and yards, and then move on from there.
It is important to understand these statistics, and what they do and do not tell you about an NFL team. A lot of people look at how many points a team scores and assume that’s all on the offense, when in fact plenty of defenses are serious points contributors. Similarly, people look at yards allowed as a measure of defensive quality, which it can be, but plenty of defenses have been built with a bend-but-don’t-break methodology, and allow yardage but limit scoring opportunities. Understanding these statistics is important, but the big thing to know is that they are not going to give you the whole picture. With that said, let’s get started with the basics.
NFL Points Scored
This one is very obvious. When you score more points on offense, your offense is better. This is going to be true, but the degrees to which it is true can vary depending on case. For example, points can be dictated by pace and playstyle - Jameis Winston put a lot of points on the board, but so did opposing teams when he threw two picks in a game. Similarly, run based teams like the Tennessee Titans are not going to be putting an astounding amount of points on the board, because they’re burning clock with the run game and playing a more suffocating style of play. All of that said, it’s important to understand that while more points is generally better, you should take a look at the individual cases of teams as well.
NFL Yards Gained
Yards is another statistic that seems good, and is good, but requires that you apply some nuance and critical thinking to it. Last year, the Dallas Cowboys led the league in total yards gained by an offense, but were only sixth in points per game, and a lot of the reason for this is that their average drive was the longest in the NFL. The average Cowboys drive was 39.4 yards, because they very often started with poor field position. They started with the third worst field position in the NFL, with an average starting position of their own 26 yard line. They were a good offense, but they also had farther to go most of the time - and to their credit, they did that. They were not, however, the best offense in the NFL, as one might expect if they went purely by the yards rankings. Once again, nuance is important.
Here’s where things get more advanced. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Simply put, what it measures is how well an offense performed against the defenses it faced. This way, teams that face great defenses get a bit of a handicap for their performances - when you play the Patriots multiple times a year, your counting statistics like yards and points will go down, simply because two of your games come against a great defense, where other teams might not have to play anyone that good the entire season.
In 2019, by DVOA, the Baltimore Ravens were by far the best offense in the league, followed by the Dallas Cowboys, the Kansas City Chiefs (remember that Patrick Mahomes missed some of the regular season, which negatively impacts their performance in all of these metrics), and the New Orleans Saints. The worst offenses in the league, by far, were those of the Pittsburgh Steelers (Big Ben got hurt, and was replaced alternately by Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges) and the New York Jets (they were very bad).
Next Gen Stats Definitions
While Next Gen stats on the NFL can provide an excellent look into a deeper aspect of the game, they should only be reviewed by those who understand the game and gameplan behind it. Some Next Gen stats are as basic as a player's running speed but the more advanced ones compare a players aggressiveness, expected results, team share rates, and more. Find the full Next Gen glossary on their site, which details how to read Next Gen stats.
NFL Offensive Statistics Overview
These are just a couple of the ways you can look at NFL teams in order to analyze what is going on when they step on the field. There are other aspects to consider as well, such as the pace of play in games they are involved in (teams that run a lot of hurry-up offense will have higher pace of play, and generally higher scoring as well) and the amount of plays they run per game (the Philadelphia Eagles ran the most plays per game last year, mostly because they had no explosive threats).
The point of these statistics is to make sure you know a little bit more when you place your wager. You don’t want to be in a position where you’re blindly relying on numbers without context, so remember to ask yourself why a statistic is telling you what it’s telling you. The most important thing you can do with stats like this is use them to supplement your thinking, not replace it.
Where You Can Make Money Off These Statisticss
With this information now soaked up, it's time to go ahead and move to making a bet. But where to do so? Betting on an NFL game is as easy as it's ever been before, with many sports betting sites accepting American players and encouraging them to bet with them.
NFL game odds, especially those for the Super Bowl + other big games, will be up days in advance of the upcoming week's matchups, giving bettors plenty of time to research info, like offensive stats.
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