Current NBA Betting Trends
Betting trends for NBA games will be formed for individual matchups throughout the course of the season. Trends can be among the most valuable pieces of information for users. This is because trends play off of actual results from previous games. Trends do not forecast or predict the outcome of an upcoming matchup; they merely relay facts and figures over to users to review when analyzing matchups. When choosing to do research on an upcoming game, trends will have to be something right at the top of the list to consider, they are that important.
So, how do you use betting trends? Well, one good example of how they can be useful, despite their small sample size, is something like home/away splits in college basketball. College basketball tends to have very pronounced home and away splits, where teams will be nearly unbeatable at home but perform quite poorly on the road. Similarly in the NBA, trends such as performance against the spread can reflect how a team performs against the expectations of the people setting the odds – sometimes you can find a team with a nearly 2:1 record against the spread and that team is almost always the most surprisingly good team of the year in that sport.
NBA Betting Trends To Look At
There are several major NBA betting trends that bear examining when you are betting on an NBA game. First, you can look at performance against the spread. You can also look at matchup history. Another good trend to examine is the pace of play with regards to over/under lines. Finally, you can look at home/away splits.
Performance Against The Spread
How well a team has performed against the spread is useful, in a limited scope. A team performing well against the spread simply means that that team has outperformed what the oddsmakers thought that team would do, over the period of time tracked. It does not have predictive power, although it can indicate that teams are being underrated, at any time the oddsmakers can and do take into account previous performances, and in theory, should be able to make it so that later in the season, the spreads are more accurate on a team that surprised them early. A useful trend, but make sure you understand what it’s actually measuring.
Basketball is all about matchups. Who is guarding Lebron James? Who is guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo? For most teams, the answer is subpar, but what about if you’re the Los Angeles Clippers and you have Kawhi Leonard to do that job? Matchups are the key to games, and past performances against certain teams can be indicative of future ones, as long as the circumstances are similar. However, when betting on the NBA, circumstances change a lot – star players get injured, teams go on good runs and bad runs – so make sure to keep that in mind when using this trend to make bets, and do your research.
Pace Of Play
The NBA tracks the number of offensive possessions each team uses per game, and this can have an outsize effect on the score of games. After all, the fewer chances you have to score, the lower the score goes. Looking at pace of play is a good way to analyze over/under lines, and is one of the first things you should be checking when you’re wondering why that line on the Denver game is so low despite them having a good offense – it’s because they have the second-lowest pace of play in the league, nearly 8% lower than league-leading Milwaukee.
In the 2020 NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers are the poster boy for this trend. The Sixers are absolutely dominant at home, losing only a handful of games and racking up dozens of wins when they play in Philly. On the road, however, they’re basically the New York Knicks. That’s not hyperbole either, they’ve had roughly the same road record as the Knicks for months. Some teams are just like that – it’s not something that makes a ton of sense statistically, but it is clearly observable, and sometimes you have to pay attention when the universe is telling you something like that.
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