Best Bet At Derby On Underdog With Speed And Trainer Success

  • Bets on trainers who have previously won the Kentucky Derby offer a lot of value on underdogs.
  • Mo Donegal’s last race resulted in a historically fast time, but he is still an underdog according to the odds.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The fastest two minutes in sports are just over two weeks away, and the betting odds for the Kentucky Derby show a pretty wide open field. Incredibly, ten horses have odds shorter than +2000

Kentucky Derby Odds

  • Epicenter +450
  • Messier +650
  • Taiba +650
  • Zandon +800
  • Mo Donegal +1000
  • White Abarrio +1100
  • Smile Happy +1400
  • Charge It +1600
  • Tiz The Bomb +1600
  • Early Voting +1800

Betting On Jockey History Highlights Value On Underdogs

In Kentucky Derby history 54% of the winning horses have come from trainers who had already won the event. Despite the fact that more than half of all winners have won the event before, of the 13 horses with the shortest odds on online sportsbooks, only four of them have trainers that have won before.

Horses With Trainers That Have Won Before:

Horse Trainer Number Of Derby Winners By Trainer Odds
Mo Donegal Todd Pletcher 2 1000
Charge It Todd Pletcher 2 1600
Pioneer Of Medina Todd Pletcher 2 3000
Happy Jack Doug O’Neill 2 10000
Cyberknife Brad Cox 1 2000
Zozos Brad Cox 1 2000
Tawny Port Brad Cox 1 5000

Doug O’Neill appears unlikely to win this year, as his only horse in the race (Happy Jack) has 100-1 odds to win.

Brad Cox’s best chances to win appear to lie with Cyberknife (+2000) and Zozos (+2000). Kentucky Derby Sportsbooks indicate that Todd Pletcher has the best odds to repeat as the winner this year with both Mo Donegal (+1000) and Charge It (+1600) as his best bets.

Todd Fletcher’s other potential horse (Pioneer of Medina, +3000), may not qualify. Pioneer of Medina currently ranks 21st in qualifying points, and with only 20 spots available is currently on the outside looking in.

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Recent Finishes Support Underdog Mo Donegal

According to America’s Best Racing, 18 of the last 24 horses to win the Kentucky Derby finished their previous race’s last 3/8ths of a mile in 38 seconds or less. Of the horses potentially participating in this year’s field.

Horse Race (Finish Position) Final Time Final 3/8ths Time
Mo Donegal Wood Memorial(1st) 01:47.9 35.61
Early Voting Wood Memorial (2nd) 01:48.0 36.42
Tiz the Bomb Jeff Ruby Steaks (1st) 01:48.6 37.05
Zandon Blue Grass Stakes (1st) 01:50.5 37.08
Taiba Santa Anita Derby (1st) 01:48.7 37.4
Messier Santa Anita Derby (2nd) 01:49.0 37.95
Smile Happy Blue Grass Stakes (2nd) 01:51.1 38.18
Happy Jack Santa Anita Derby (3rd) 01:51.7 38.75
Morello Wood Memorial (6th) 01:51.5 38.96
Barber Road Arkansas Derby (2nd) 01:50.9 39.16
Cyberknife Arkansas Derby (1st) 01:50.4 39.18
White Abarrio Florida Derby (1st) 01:50.6 39.66
Charge It Florida Derby (2nd) 01:50.8 39.77
Simplification Florida Derby (3rd) 01:50.8 40.14
Un Ojo Arkansas Derby (8th) 01:52.8 40.2

Track conditions clearly play a large role in all those times, but it is still impossible to ignore how incredibly fast Mo Donegal finished.

Amongst the last 24 winners, Mo Donegal’s last 3/8ths finish in 35.61 seconds would rank as the second fastest, behind only Street Sense’s finish 34.35-second finish at the Blue Grass Stakes back in 2007.

Interestingly enough, Street Sense did not even win that Blue Grass Stakes event, having finished the entire race in 1:51.33 minutes. Mo Donegal raced harder and faster from the start than Street Sense, and finished his last race in 1:47.86 minutes, which may make his time even more impressive.

Todd Fletcher’s prior success as a trainer, coupled with Mo Donegal’s historic finishing speed, may make the combo the best value at the Kentucky Derby.