- Bets on trainers who have previously won the Kentucky Derby offer a lot of value on underdogs.
- Mo Donegal’s last race resulted in a historically fast time, but he is still an underdog according to the odds.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The fastest two minutes in sports are just over two weeks away, and the betting odds for the Kentucky Derby show a pretty wide open field. Incredibly, ten horses have odds shorter than +2000
Kentucky Derby Odds
- Epicenter +450
- Messier +650
- Taiba +650
- Zandon +800
- Mo Donegal +1000
- White Abarrio +1100
- Smile Happy +1400
- Charge It +1600
- Tiz The Bomb +1600
- Early Voting +1800
Betting On Jockey History Highlights Value On Underdogs
In Kentucky Derby history 54% of the winning horses have come from trainers who had already won the event. Despite the fact that more than half of all winners have won the event before, of the 13 horses with the shortest odds on online sportsbooks, only four of them have trainers that have won before.
Horses With Trainers That Have Won Before:
| Horse | Trainer | Number Of Derby Winners By Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Donegal | Todd Pletcher | 2 | 1000 |
| Charge It | Todd Pletcher | 2 | 1600 |
| Pioneer Of Medina | Todd Pletcher | 2 | 3000 |
| Happy Jack | Doug O’Neill | 2 | 10000 |
| Cyberknife | Brad Cox | 1 | 2000 |
| Zozos | Brad Cox | 1 | 2000 |
| Tawny Port | Brad Cox | 1 | 5000 |
Doug O’Neill appears unlikely to win this year, as his only horse in the race (Happy Jack) has 100-1 odds to win.
Brad Cox’s best chances to win appear to lie with Cyberknife (+2000) and Zozos (+2000). Kentucky Derby Sportsbooks indicate that Todd Pletcher has the best odds to repeat as the winner this year with both Mo Donegal (+1000) and Charge It (+1600) as his best bets.
Todd Fletcher’s other potential horse (Pioneer of Medina, +3000), may not qualify. Pioneer of Medina currently ranks 21st in qualifying points, and with only 20 spots available is currently on the outside looking in.
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Recent Finishes Support Underdog Mo Donegal
According to America’s Best Racing, 18 of the last 24 horses to win the Kentucky Derby finished their previous race’s last 3/8ths of a mile in 38 seconds or less. Of the horses potentially participating in this year’s field.
| Horse | Race (Finish Position) | Final Time | Final 3/8ths Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Donegal | Wood Memorial(1st) | 01:47.9 | 35.61 |
| Early Voting | Wood Memorial (2nd) | 01:48.0 | 36.42 |
| Tiz the Bomb | Jeff Ruby Steaks (1st) | 01:48.6 | 37.05 |
| Zandon | Blue Grass Stakes (1st) | 01:50.5 | 37.08 |
| Taiba | Santa Anita Derby (1st) | 01:48.7 | 37.4 |
| Messier | Santa Anita Derby (2nd) | 01:49.0 | 37.95 |
| Smile Happy | Blue Grass Stakes (2nd) | 01:51.1 | 38.18 |
| Happy Jack | Santa Anita Derby (3rd) | 01:51.7 | 38.75 |
| Morello | Wood Memorial (6th) | 01:51.5 | 38.96 |
| Barber Road | Arkansas Derby (2nd) | 01:50.9 | 39.16 |
| Cyberknife | Arkansas Derby (1st) | 01:50.4 | 39.18 |
| White Abarrio | Florida Derby (1st) | 01:50.6 | 39.66 |
| Charge It | Florida Derby (2nd) | 01:50.8 | 39.77 |
| Simplification | Florida Derby (3rd) | 01:50.8 | 40.14 |
| Un Ojo | Arkansas Derby (8th) | 01:52.8 | 40.2 |
Track conditions clearly play a large role in all those times, but it is still impossible to ignore how incredibly fast Mo Donegal finished.
Amongst the last 24 winners, Mo Donegal’s last 3/8ths finish in 35.61 seconds would rank as the second fastest, behind only Street Sense’s finish 34.35-second finish at the Blue Grass Stakes back in 2007.
Interestingly enough, Street Sense did not even win that Blue Grass Stakes event, having finished the entire race in 1:51.33 minutes. Mo Donegal raced harder and faster from the start than Street Sense, and finished his last race in 1:47.86 minutes, which may make his time even more impressive.
Todd Fletcher’s prior success as a trainer, coupled with Mo Donegal’s historic finishing speed, may make the combo the best value at the Kentucky Derby.
