- Carroll is +105 on over 1.5 total bases and +550 to homer against Lodolo on Friday at Chase Field on his 26th birthday.
- Carroll is hitting .327 with a .422 on-base mark and .987 OPS in 173 plate appearances against lefties this season.
- Only 5 of his 18 homers came off left-handers, so the lefty split argues for the bases, not the homer.
- Lodolo has allowed a .313 average and .845 OPS to left-handed hitters in 78 plate appearances.
PHOENIX – Corbin Carroll is +105 to clear 1.5 total bases and +550 to homer Friday against Cincinnati left-hander Nick Lodolo at Chase Field on his birthday. Both Corbin Carroll props ask more than his full-season rates, but his .987 OPS against left-handed pitching makes the total bases over the better-supported number.
The Split Is The Whole Argument
Carroll’s season line is .246/.346/.484 with 18 home runs in 124 games, and both prices are written against that baseline. He has reached two total bases in 53 of those 124 games, about 43 percent, while the +105 over on 1.5 total bases needs him to do it close to 49 percent of the time to break even. He has homered in 17 games, under 14 percent, and +550 needs better than 15 percent. On the full-season numbers, both props are short.
The platoon split is the reason to look anyway. Against left-handers Carroll is hitting .327 with a .422 OBP and .565 slugging, a .987 OPS over 173 plate appearances. Off right-handers he is hitting .209 with a .756 OPS in 365 plate appearances.
A 173-PA split is big enough that the average and slugging mean something. A hitter slugging .565 against the handedness on the mound makes a 1.5-bases over far closer to fair than his season-long 43 percent suggests, which is the spot where online sportsbooks that accept USA players price off the season line.
The power runs the other way. Carroll’s 48 hits off lefties include eight doubles and six triples but only five home runs, one every 29 at-bats, against one every 24 at-bats off right-handers. His extra-base damage against lefties is gap power, which is why total bases, not the homer, is where the split pays.
Carroll’s +550 is not even the shortest homer price in the game. Eugenio Suarez is +440, and Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart are +460 for the Reds, so the market is not treating Carroll’s power as the lineup’s best against this starter.
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Lodolo Is The Lefty Who Struggles With Lefties
Lodolo arrives at 3-2 with a 4.52 ERA, 57 strikeouts and 29 walks in 71 2/3 innings over 14 starts. His 1.42 WHIP sits well above the 1.30 league baseline. Left-handed hitters have done more to him than right-handers this season, a .313 average and .845 OPS in 78 plate appearances against .257 and .808 from the right side, which reverses the platoon edge a lefty starter is supposed to own.
Carroll is 1-for-2 in three career plate appearances against him, a sample that says nothing either way.
Lodolo has made two starts since July 11, four innings and four earned runs at the White Sox on Aug. 11 and five shutout innings against Miami on Aug. 16. Short outings mean the Reds bullpen, not Lodolo, will see Carroll’s third and fourth plate appearances. The total bases and homer props carry across the whole game while the split applies only to the at-bats Lodolo takes, and the MLB sportsbooks post both markets.
The Birthday Is A Plus, Not A Stat
Carroll turns 26 on Friday, and his previous start on his birthday resulted in a walk and a single.
