Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez 2: UFC Betting Breakdown


  • Deiveson Figueiredo is set to go up against a man he already defeated, but this time with the title on the line.
  • Figueiredo missed weight last time the two fought, and thus lost his chance at the title.
  • This time around, both fighters made weight, and Figueiredo enters as a -225 favorite.

LAS VEGAS - Tonight’s UFC Fight Night features a banger of a match between Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez.

USAOnlineSportsbooks has already covered several of the other fights on the card, and this article will focus entirely on the Main Event.

The evening is, of course, headlined by Figueiredo vs. Benavidez, in their second clash - this time, for the now vacant Flyweight title. This fight is interesting, not just in terms of the betting odds, but in terms of how the UFC arrived at this point.

How Did We Get Here?

Figueiredo and Benavidez were originally selected to fight each other for the vacant UFC Flyweight Championship back in February.

The championship was vacated after Henry Cejudo, one of the most dominant fighters in the UFC, retired after a victory in December of 2019.

This meant that the UFC needed to find a champion for the Flyweight division, and it turned to Figueiredo and Benavidez, who were ranked first and second in the division, respectively.

Everything looked great, but then Figueiredo clocked in at 2.5 lbs over the flyweight weight limit of 125 lbs.

Not wanting to deprive the fans of a show, the UFC set the match to be a catchweight match, and ruled that if Figueiredo won, he would not win the championship, but if Benavidez won, Benavidez would be the champion.

Of course, Figueiredo stopped Benavidez in the second round, leaving the title vacant.

This time around, there will be no such mistakes from Figueiredo, and no available excuses for Benavidez.

Both fighters made weight, and this match will be for the title, no matter what.

Benavidez vs. Figueiredo 2 Betting

This brings us to the actual fight, which looks to be a seriously good one. There are a lot of places to start examining the odds, and the moneyline is usually the best one.

Benavidez vs. Figueiredo Moneyline Odds

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  • Deiveson Figueiredo -225
  • Joseph Benavidez +175

After how one-sided the last matchup was, it should come as no surprise that Figueiredo is a favorite in this one.

A 2.5 lb difference might not be all that impactful, and Figueiredo stopped Benavidez quickly last time around at 1:54 in the second round.

Figueiredo boasts reach advantages both with his arms and with his legs and stands an inch taller than Benavidez to boot. In addition, of course, he is the higher-ranked of the two fighters going into this matchup.

When all of these things are put together, the amount he is favored by starts to make a bit more sense.

The sportsbooks also expect a fairly quick fight, which is worth noting:

Fight to complete 2 full rounds

  • Yes (Fight Completes 2 Full Rounds) -140
  • No (Fight Does Not Complete 2 Full Rounds) +110

Fight to complete 3 full rounds

  • Yes (Fight Completes 3 Full Rounds) EVEN
  • No (Fight Does Not Complete 3 Full Rounds) -130

This seems to imply that the middle of the probability curve in terms of how many rounds the fight will take is around 2.5.

That tracks with both of the fighter’s average fight times, which are around 12 minutes, and, actually within 5 seconds of each other.

Twelve minutes is a little under 2.5 rounds, and that seems to be a factor in the thought processes of bettors across the globe.

One thing to consider, however, is that these fighters are used to competing in three-round fights, and not five-round main event fights. This no doubt affects their gameplans, in turn affecting their average fight times.

There’s a lot to consider for those betting on the UFC here, and, similarly, a lot to be gained from wagering on this event.

Best of luck!