- Derek Xiao has +150 odds to win Big Brother 23.
- The next closest competitor is Xavier Prather at +450 odds.
- Longshots extend past +1000 odds and hold much more value
LOS ANGELES - As the week of Big Brother continues, houseguests are prepping for Day 30 on Thursday's eviction.
While Wednesday night will feature the veto ceremony in Episode 12, the focus looks past the nominees of Whitney and Hannah and onto the Big Brother 23 favorite: Derek Xiao.
Is Derek X. Overvalued At Sportsbooks?
There is no doubt that Derek X. is a competitor... he has won two veto competitions while throwing a few other challenges as well. Likewise, his social game is top notch, being able to jump between his assigned alliance of the The Jokers (Brent, Whitney, and Hannah) and his game-focused alliance with the Royal Flush.
However, as the focus of this week has turned toward getting Whitney out of the house, does Derek X deserve to be considered the favorite as he's on the verge of losing two teammates?
Derek X has made it clear that he is the "outlier" in the Royal Flush alliance and that going along with the house may not be best for his game. While the words were spoken, his actions have yet to show which side he's more willing to take.
Assuming Whitney goes home this week, X would be left without any real alliance, sporting his crush in Hannah in the Jokers while being the added one in a strong Royal Flush group.
Despite his conundrum, entertainment sportsbooks list Derek as a monster favorite over the entire house.
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Opening at +1200 when the season started, Derek X moved quickly to +550 and even further to +450. At his current odds price of +150, X is well ahead of the field, with Xavier listed second at +450.
Favored to win the next HOH as well (+450), Derek has also been moving up on the oddsboard for America's Favorite Houseguest (+600) - good for third.
While Derek has been proving his abilities early on, floating between alliances may prove to be costly, as proven in season's past. Instead, those betting at online sportsbooks on Big Brother 23 should be looking further down the odds list for more value.
Longshot Winners For Big Brother 23
- Tiffany Mitchell +600
- Christian Birkenberger +800
- Azah Awasum +1400
- Sarah Beth Steagall +1400
- Alyssa Lopez +2000
- Britini D'Angelo +3000
While it is impossible for all of the contestants to win, these six represent the best odds for Big Brother betting due to their risk vs. payout ratio.
- Tiffany - At +600, Tiffany is a little lower than desired. However, her control over The Cookout and social game should keep her in the house long term.
- Christian - As long as Christian doesn't get his emotions twisted in his showmance, +800 is too good to pass up for a strong player in both social and comps.
- Azah - While a longshot at +1400, Azah could surprise most in the house and float her way into jury. Getting along with everyone is key to her game.
- Sarah Beth - Maybe the best longshot, Sarah Beth could fly under the radar as a pawn or one that "we'll get out next" but next week never comes.
- Alyssa - With odds as high as this, betting on Alyssa to win Big Brother 23 should be on every bet slip. She has proven she's much wiser than people give her credit for.
- Britini - Despite being on the block, taking any houseguest at +3000 should be an instant small risk bet. Her strength and condolences from the house have her supported for a while.
Though Derek has been touted as the strong favorite before Week 4's eviction, those who have watched Big Brother in the past know to expect the unexpected. Taking a favorite is never advised, especially one that is quickly losing alliance members left and right and putting themselves in their own path of eviction.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.