Luka’s Finals MVP Odds Are Good Value, Should You Hedge?

  • Luka Doncic has +700 odds to win the Finals MVP, and the Mavericks have +650 odds to win the Finals.

DALLAS – Luka Doncic might be the best remaining player in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. The star finished fifth in NBA MVP voting, but all four players ahead of him have been eliminated.

Doncic is one of the favorites to win the Finals MVP award, but not an outright favorite, as his Dallas Mavericks are not expected to beat the Golden State Warriors.

The Mavs have +650 odds to win the Finals, and Luka has +700 odds to win Finals MVP, which seems all but guaranteed if they do manage to make a run. Luka is the engine of the Mavericks, and leads them in playoff points, rebounds, assists and steals.

NBA 2022 Finals MVP Odds

  • Stephen Curry +210
  • Jayson Tatum +270
  • Jimmy Butler +550
  • Luka Doncic +700
  • Klay Thompson +1600

Doncic’s odds to win Finals MVP have been steadily shrinking – they could be found at +2000 before Game 7 against the Phoenix Suns, and at +900 in the immediate aftermath.

It’s clear that anyone betting on this would be tailing a larger trend at the online sportsbooks.

Hedging Luka Doncic Finals MVP Wagers

What price you got Luka’s Finals MVP odds at will influence how you should hedge this wager. Players who locked it in at +2000 have a lot of leeway, while players who have it at +700 have far less.

The traditional method of hedging a far-out NBA futures wager that looks likely to pay out is to wager on elimination games that the team or player you wagered on is involved in.

This is because the futures market itself is full of vig-heavy wagers, and you were only able to get the good wager you got because events worked out in your favor – re-entering that market is inadvisable.

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As an example, the Warriors are -250 to win the Western Conference, so in order to get the unit wagered on Luka back, you’d have to put 2.5 units on them. However, assuming one unit was placed on Luka to win Finals MVP +700, a bettor can only make this wager four times before it becomes unprofitable.

Luka Is An Elimination Game God

Here’s where Luka’s greatness works against him – Luka is famously unstoppable when he plays in elimination games.

In elimination games, Luka averaged 39 points entering the Suns series, which is the most in history. In Game 6 against the Phoenix Suns, down 3-2, he scored 33 points, and in Game 7, he scored 27 points in the first half before taking his foot off the gas to finish with 35 points. The Mavericks won both games.

The worry is that Luka would be so dominant in elimination games that wagering against the Mavericks in elimination games becomes unprofitable simply because there are so many of them. After all, if someone had taken that approach in the Phoenix series, they would have hedged by betting on Phoenix in Game 6 and Game 7, and lost both.

At +700, this becomes an ineffective method of hedging almost immediately. In the event Luka wins multiple elimination games, but does not win the Finals MVP, not only are you out the wager on Luka, you’re out the units placed on all of those elimination games as well.

The solution, in this situation, seems to be to avoid hedging entirely, especially if you got in at +700 or +900.