- The Falcons could win their second NFC South game in a row.
- With Nick Foles back in action, look for the Jags to cover against the Colts.
- Are oddsmakers overlooking the New York Jets against the Redskins?
ATLANTA – Entering Week 11 of the NFL betting season, the sportsbooks have come out on top. Bettors can find a way to even the books with a few victories on the underdogs. With many teams playing potential trap games, look for everything to be shaken up this week.
By using NFL betting trends, this list of the NFL games played on Sunday includes data supporting the point total, spread, and/or moneyline.
Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) Vs. Detroit Lions
The Cowboys are favored by just under a touchdown after the news that Matthew Stafford would be absent from the game. After a loss in primetime to the Vikings last week, the Cowboys should bounce back nicely; Dallas is 13-6 in their last 19 games played.
With Detroit losing five of their last six and failing to cover the spread in four of their last five, it may be the moment that the Lions throw in the towel on the season. Bettors should also look to take the over (47.5), as it has hit in over 70% of both teams’ most recent games.
New Orleans Saints (-6) Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans had a terrible showing against the Falcons last week and face another divisional opponent except this time on the road. The Bucs (+205) are worth double a bettors wager on the moneyline, but keep in mind the Saints are 10-2 in their last dozen road games.
Also, Tampa Bay has covered the spread at home over their last six games only one time. With the Saints looking to get back on track on the offensive end of the ball, expect these high-powered offenses to help bettors who took the over (50). The Bucs have seen the over hit in all of their last five games.
Atlanta Falcons Vs. Carolina Panthers (-4.5)
In another divisional matchup regarding the NFC South, the Panthers will host the Falcons (+180). Atlanta has generally performed well against the Panthers – covering the spread in six of the last seven – but have only done so twice in the team’s last seven games on the season.
With the under being the heavy play here, US sportsbooks still aren’t shying away from a high point total (49.5). The under has hit nine of the last dozen times in this matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3)
The Jaguars have understood how to take care of the Colts in the past, keeping the scoring low and the game close. In this matchup, the under has hit in seven of the last eight games played in Indianapolis. With a point total at 43.5, the under seems like a very safe play.
As for the spread, the Colts have failed to cover against Jacksonville in the past. The Jaguars are 7-0-1 against the spread over the last four seasons, indicating that historical betting trends support the Jags. Perhaps a parlay with the under would reward bettors more favorably as well.
Denver Broncos Vs. Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
In one of the largest spreads of the NFL Week 11 schedule, the Vikings are looking to continue their dominance both straight up and against the spread. Winning seven of their last eight at home, the Vikings are also 4-2 against the spread in their last half-dozen.
With Denver being 3-10 over their last 13, bettors may consider the high risk-low reward play of taking the Vikings (-500) on the moneyline. As these teams commonly play the opposite side of the over-under from each other, avoiding the 40.5 point projection is recommended.
New York Jets Vs. Washington Redskins (-2.5)
That is not a mistake, the Redskins are favored in a game this year. No matter how this game ends out, bettors will likely be on both sides of this fairly evenly. The Jets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 and have only won three of their last 19. Meanwhile, the Redskins are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight, while only winning one of their last 11.
Things don’t get easier for bettors on the point projection (38.5) either. With the Jets seeing the over hit in four of their last five, bettors take may this side of the line. However, those who wager regularly on the Redskins know that the under has hit in all of their last six. Which team’s trends will be busted after Sunday’s game?
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Buffalo Bills (-6.5) Vs. Miami Dolphins
When playing in an AFC East matchup, these teams generally always keep games close. A touchdown may seem like a lot and bettors may consider risking a unit on the surging Dolphins. They have covered the spread in all five of their last games.
With 41 points projected on the over-under, the under seems to always be the play with Buffalo. It has hit in seven of their last nine and all of their last six when on the road. Even Miami supports this idea, as the total has only hit the over twice in Miami’s last eight.
Houston Texans Vs. Baltimore Ravens (-4)
In this MVP-esque showdown, the Texans (+175) will look to play spoiler in Baltimore. Houston has only won two of their last 10 against the Ravens but is capable of keeping games close when on the road. Covering in four of their last five away from Houston, look for the Texans to surprise, as the Ravens are appearing untouchable.
Baltimore has only covered the spread once in their last seven home games, mainly due to high scoring affairs. With the over hitting in five of the Ravens’ last seven games, bettors may consider parlaying the Texans moneyline with the over (51.5) for the ultimate same-game parlay.
Arizona Cardinals Vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
These two teams may seem like they are on opposite sides of the spectrum, but NFL betting trends point us in a manageable direction. Arizona struggles, there is no doubt. They have only won two of their last dozen when playing a team from the NFC. However, when matching up against the Niners in San Francisco, the Cardinals have covered the spread in four of these last five instances.
As the 49ers have only covered the spread in five of their last 18 against NFC opponents, look for the Cardinals to hold onto this two-possession spread. With an over-under set at 45, bettors may consider taking the under, especially with all of the injuries afoot for the Niners. Also, four of the last six matchups between these two teams have seen the under hit.
New England Patriots (-3.5) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
In a recent Super Bowl rematch, the Patriots will look to continue their dominant season in Philadelphia. The Eagles (+170) are the underdog at home, where they have won six of their last seven. Over the last six games, the Eagles have won four of these contests, while covering the spread in four matchups as well.
With this, bettors shouldn’t be so quick to jump on the Pats, despite them winning 13 of their last 14. As these defenses could keep the action quite limited, expect each scoring opportunity to play a significant factor. Set at 45 points, bettors should consider the under, which has hit in nearly two-thirds of the Pats’ last 20 games.
Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Oakland Raiders (-11)
Oakland is the focus of this matchup, as they should have nothing to slow them down at home. The Ravens made it clear that the Bengals are not able to do much and the Raiders will look to improve on their 5-1 record against the spread over their last six games. As Cincinnati is 1-5 against the spread in their last six, bettors shouldn’t feel like this is unmanageable.
Taking the point total into consideration, there doesn’t seem to lean a favorite on either side of the projected 48.5 points. Cinci has seen the under hit in all five of their last road games but Oakland has been on a streak of seeing the over be successful (six of their last seven). Don’t fall into a trap betting either side of the point projection.
Chicago Bears Vs. LA Rams (-6.5)
The Rams have won 10 of their last 13, despite the loss to the Steelers last week. Still, Chicago is only 1-4 against the spread in their last five, indicating that the Rams could win and win big. However, those who look into obscure trends may be turned off by the fact that the Rams have only won two of their last 10 games that were played in Week 11.
No matter which preseason-projected-playoff-team you decide to take, understand that the under has hit in 11 of Chicago’s last 14. With a point total set at 40 points, the under may be difficult to keep at bay. However, if either of these offenses struggle they could be in for a long primetime game.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.