NFL Draft Betting: Odds Favor The Over On Day One Trades

  • The line for trades on day one for the 2021 NFL Draft is set at 4.5.
  • The Over is favored with -155 odds while Under comes back at +115.

CLEVELAND – The NFL Draft is one of the most exciting days of the year, and maybe the most exciting part of the event is when the commissioner steps up to the podium and announces there have been a trade.

Online sportsbooks have set the line of trades on day one of the draft at 4.5 and favor the Over with -155 odds.

Is it Possible for Under 4.5 to Hit?

Before that question can be answered, it needs to be determined which teams may find themselves trading back. The teams at the top of the draft that are most likely to trade their picks are the Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos.

Total Round 1 Trades Betting Odds

  • Over 4.5: -155
  • Under 4.5: +115

While each of those teams will have an opportunity to give up their pick to a team looking for a quarterback, once one team moves in to the top 10, it’s highly unlikely there’s another player worth trading up for.

Total Round 1 Trades Within Top 10 Picks

  • Over 1.5: +150
  • Under 1.5: -200

The last two seasons have seen just one single top 10 pick traded away on draft day. If somebody will win on betting Under 4.5 trades, they will likely be in good shape after the first 10 picks of the draft.

Advertising Disclosure provides you with the most current information regarding sports betting and fantasy with the help of commissions we receive from links you may click on our site.

Where Do The Trades Come From?

In 2020, there were only four trades on draft night. The first-round picks traded were the No. 13, No. 23, No. 25, and No. 26 picks.

In 2019, there were six trades on day one. Picks No. 10, No. 21, No. 22, No. 26, No. 30 and No. 31.

Clearly, teams prefer to keep their top picks, but are more willing to trade their picks later in the first round. This draft has potential to see a lot of talent fall in the draft due to certain team needs and could see a lot of movement.

How to Watch

The NFL Draft will start on Thursday and those betting on the draft can tune in to ABC, ESPN, or NFL Network at 8 p.m. EST.