Odds Favor The Over For Luka Doncic’s Player Prop Bet

  • Luka Doncic's points + rebounds + assists player prop bet is set very high at 51.5.
  • His prior playoff performance and the style of offense the Dallas Mavericks run have the over favored.

PHOENIX - Luka Doncic is due to have another huge game in Game Two of the Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks, at least that's what online sportsbooks are implying.

Luka Doncic Points + Rebounds + Assists Total

  • Over 51.5 -115
  • Under 51.5 -113

Luka's points + rebounds + assists total is 16 higher than the next closest player in Game Two, Devin Booker (35.5). Despite that incredible discrepancy that indicates just how high this player prop is, the -115 odds show that the over is favored.

Playoff Luka An NBA Legend

Luka Doncic, who is only 23 years old, already has a sterling postseason resume.

Season: Points: Rebounds: Assists:
2020 31 9.8 8.7
2021 35.7 7.9 10.3
2022 33 11 6.3

His postseason stats are incredible, but some may nitpick and argue he played better last year. Last year he didn't score 30 and 33 points while on a minutes restriction that prevented him from scoring even more.

With four days off between the end of the Utah Jazz series and the start of the Suns series, Luka apparently got some rest. It was clear he was moving around better, en route to a 45-point, 12-rebound, 8-assist master class in Game One that the Mavericks still lost.

That master class, as well as his playoff history, are a few of the reasons that it may be confusing that NBA sportsbooks don't have his points + rebounds + assists prop even higher.

Maverick's Offense Runs Through Luka

Everyone in the NBA is aware of how great a player Luka Doncic is, and the Dallas Mavericks run their offense in a way to maximize that greatness.

The Mavericks run a ton of pick-and-rolls at the top of the key in order to make defense's switch Luka's defenders. Those switches nearly always result in mismatches.

Doncic's usage rate and true shooting percentages compared to the rest of the five highest usage rate players of the Mavericks players who play 10+ minutes per game show how important those actions are to their offense.

Top Five Usage Rates For The Mavericks

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Player: Minutes Per Game: Usage Rate: True Shooting:
Luka Doncic 38.2 38.10% 60.60%
Jalen Brunson 35.2 26.90% 52.60%
Spencer Dinwiddie 28.4 17.20% 53.50%
Maxi Kleber 21.7 14.70% 62.50%
Dorian Finney-Smith 41.7 13.60% 65.30%

Luka Doncic is clearly responsible for creating an abnormally large portion of Dallas's offense.

Consider that the Maverick's opponent, the Phoenix Suns, has seven players with higher usage rates than the Spencer Dinwiddie's (third place on the Mavericks). They spread the ball around and share the responsibility, which the Mavericks don't do.

Clearly, the heliocentric offense that the Dallas Mavericks run places a heavy burden on Luka, and he seems to constantly deliver. His propensity to deliver is reflected by online sportsbooks who, despite having the total set sky-high, are favoring the over for Luka Doncic's points + rebounds + assists.