Patrick Mahomes Prop Betting Guide vs Jaguars

  • A parlay of Patrick Mahomes 3+ Pass TDs, Kansas City Chiefs win and KC total points over 30.5 comes in at +138 odds.
  • Mahomes threw for 331 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Jaguars in week 9.
  • Pass yardage prop of 311.5 (-114) is large for most players, but not Mahomes.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – NFL MVP heavy favorite Patrick Mahomes (-1600) leads the 9-point favorite Kansas City Chiefs into a Divisional round game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The two met in week 9 where the Chiefs won 27-17.

NFL sportsbooks have set various player props for Mahomes, including his passing yards prop of 311.5 (-114) and other parlays that bettors can find some value in.

Mahomes: The Most Prolific Passer Ever

While uncommon for other players, few NFL bettors are surprised to see a pass yards prop of over/under 311.5 (-114) for Mahomes. After all, Patrick Mahomes is the NFL all-time leader in pass yards per game, with a massive 303 yards on average.

On the season, Mahomes has gone over his passing yards prop a strong 10 times in 17 games, including 331 yards against the Jaguars. In his last five playoff games, Mahomes reached the over on this yardage prop in three of them.

When we look at games where they are favored by 9 or more points, Mahomes threw for at least 312 yards (-114) in four out of five games. While passing may seem counterintuitive in games where the Chiefs are supposed to win by a lot, advanced statistics clarifies that this is part of Kansas City’s gameplan.

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To make sure game script won’t be a huge factor we take a look at Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), which is a measure of how often a team passes in situations where a run is more likely such as when leading by a lot, and we discover that the Chiefs have the highest PROE by a large margin. This can give Mahomes bettors confidence that the Chiefs will continue to pass the ball even if they are leading against the big underdog Jaguars.

Parlay Value on Mahomes and the Chiefs

Sportsbooks online have also set parlays that combine multiple props into one ticket. An intriguing one for this Chiefs vs Jaguars matchup is: Patrick Mahomes 3+ pass TDs, KC Chiefs win, and KC total points over 30.5, coming in at +138 odds.

Mahomes in the playoffs has thrown for three or more touchdowns in seven of his 11 total games, including four of his five most recent games. The Chiefs as a team went over their 30.5 total in six of those seven games when Mahomes throws 3 or more touchdowns.

This in addition to a huge -500 Chiefs money line means that bettors can find great value betting on Mahomes and the passing attack against a bottom 5 Jaguars defense.

Patrick Mahomes to have 3+ Passing TDs, KC to win, and KC Total points over 30.5 (+138)