- Luka Doncic(+450) is the favorite to win Most Valuable Player for the third season in a row.
- Comparing betting odds on players not among the top three favorites for MVP reveals the importance of line shopping.
- Paolo Banchero(+300) is the rightful favorite to be Rookie Of the Year based on the -115 odds for him to average at least 17.5 points per game.
NEW YORK – Free agency has barely begun, but online sportsbooks are already offering odds on many regular-season awards such as Most Valuable Player and Rookie Of the Year.
Luka Doncic enters his third straight season as the betting favorite to win the NBA MVP award. His odds, along with other top favorites, vary depending on the sportsbook.
| Favorite Rank | Bovada | BetOnline | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Luka Doncic (+450) | Luka Doncic (+425) | Luka Donci (+475) |
| 2nd | Joel Embiid (+600) | Joel Embiid (+650) | Joel Embiid (+550) |
| 3rd | Giannis Antetokounmpo (+700) | Giannis Antetokounmpo (+750) | Giannis Antetokounmpo (+750) |
| 4th | Kevin Durant (+1000) | Kevin Durant (+1000) | Ja Morant (+1000) |
| 5th | Nikola Jokic (+1200) | Stephen Curry (+1000) | Nikola Jokic (+1000) |
| 6th | Stephen Curry (+1300) | Ja Morant/Nikola Jokic (+1100) | Kevin Durant (+1200) |
Looking through the list it becomes apparent just how important line shopping can be when betting on the NBA. The odds are seemingly all over the place, as is the order of the players not named Luka, Joel Embiid, or Giannis Antetokounmpo.
An example would be Ja Morant. He is not a top-six MVP candidate at Bovada (he has +1600 odds on there), but he ranks among the top six for both BetOnline (+1100) and DraftKings (+1000).
Betting On The Rookie Of The Year Favorite
Online sportsbooks have been quick to anoint the first overall pick Paolo Banchero (+300) as the favorite for the 2022-23 Rookie of the Year Award.
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One reason that Paolo Banchero may be the ROY favorite is because of his projected scoring. Only one Rookie of the Year winner failed to average at least 15 points per game (Malcolm Brogdon) out of the last 19 winners.
| Rookie | ROY Odds | Total PPG | Over Odds | Unders Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | +300 | 17.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Jabari Smith | +350 | 16.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Chet Holmgren | +575 | 13.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Jaden Ivey | +650 | 12.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Keegan Murray | +900 | 13.5 | -115 | -115 |
Of the favorites for Rookie Of the Year, only Banchero and Jabari Smith have their total points over/under set at about 15 points per game. Smith’s -130 odds for the under suggest he is likely to average less than 16.5 points.
Using betting odds on individual stats to bet based on history makes it clear why Paolo Banchero is the favorite for next season’s Rookie Of the Year trophy.
