Second Half Spread Error Giving Value to UGA and TCU

  • The second-half spread at Bovada for the National Championship game does not add up to the spreads of the third and fourth quarters.
  • Bettors can now get extra value on both the Georgia Bulldogs and TCU Horned Frogs in the National Championship.

INGLEWOOD, Calif. – Bovada is offering betting on the National Championship for the entire game, each half, and each quarter, with players able to find extra value specifically when comparing the second half line to the third and fourth quarters specifically.

Comparing Second-Half National Championship Odds

College Football sportsbooks have seemingly made a mistake in the second-half betting lines, because unlike the first-half odds the second-half spread does not equal the spreads of the third and fourth quarters combined:

  • Second Half Spread: Georgia -6.5 (-105); TCU +6.5 (-115)
  • Third Quarter Spread: Georgia -3.0 (-120); TCU +3.0 (-110)
  • Fourth Quarter Spread: Georgia -0.5 (-120); TCU +0.5 (-110)

The moneylines for each quarter dictate that it was not a typo, with the online sportsbooks seemingly only partially buying into the narrative that TCU is a second-half team.

TCU's second-half statistics certainly suggest that the Sonny Dykes-led team has made some key halftime adjustments that have them jump from a good offensive to an elite one at the national level:

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  • TCU's First Half Points Per Game: 18.4 (19th Nationally)
  • TCU's Second Half Points Per Game: 20.3 (3rd Nationally)

Georgia's first and second-half splits go the opposite direction, which is more traditional as most teams do score more points in the first half rather than the second:

  • Georgia's First Half Points Per Game: 21.0 (5th Nationally)
  • Georgia's Second Half Points Per Game: 18.8 (10th Nationally)

With Bovada not evening those odds based on TCU's second-half resurgences, there are ways to gain a leg up on the sportsbook when betting on either TCU or Georgia:

  • Betting on TCU: Bet on either the second-half spread or the third-quarter spread, as the marginal fourth-quarter spread offers effectively no protection against Georgia outscoring the Horned Frogs.
  • Betting on Georgia: Bet on the 'Dawgs to cover the spread in the fourth quarter, as they only need to outscore TCU by one to cover. For Georgia to cover in the third they must score at least four more points to cover, with that number jumping to seven points for the entire half.

Are you trailing bets on the second half of the National Championship game?