Why are Sportsbooks Down on A.J. Brown vs. Houston?

  • Thursday Night Football pits the Philadelphia Eagles against the Houston Texans.
  • A.J. Brown has a suspiciously low yards O.U of 68.5.
  • Brown’s receptions O/U is set at 4.5, a number he’s hit in six of seven games.

HOUSTON – Thursday Night Football sees the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles take on the woeful Houston Texans, and A.J. Brown could be a major story against a mediocre Houston defense.

Brown has been utterly dominant this season, the major difference between the Philadelphia of last year and the undefeated team they are today.

In seven games, Brown has put up 659 receiving yards, for an average of 94 yards per game in an Eagles uniform.

Total Receiving Yards – A.J. Brown

  • Over 68.5 -115
  • Under 68.5 -115

Against Houston, Brown’s O/U for receiving yards is set far below that at the online sportsbooks – a curious situation given his dominance this season.

Houston allows the 17th passing yards overall – they’re not exactly a no-fly zone.

Brown has only had two games this season in which he went under 68.5 receiving yards. One was against the Arizona Cardinals, and the other against the Dallas Cowboys.

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The Arizona one sticks out as an oddity. Dallas gives up the third-fewest yards in the air, so struggling there makes sense, but against Arizona, Brown simply didn’t get his hands on the ball, catching three passes on seven targets.

Total Receptions – A.J. Brown

  • Over 4.5 -150
  • Under 4.5 +115

In terms of receptions, Brown only has one game this season with less than five receptions – the aforementioned game against Arizona.

A.J. Brown Receptions + Targets 2022

Week Targets Receptions
1 13 10
2 8 5
3 10 5
4 7 5
5 7 3
6 8 5
8 11 6

In the context of how many targets Brown gets, it makes sense that the Over is getting a lot of shading on 4.5 – especially given how consistent Brown has been in hitting five receptions.

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Will A.J. Brown Hit Both O/Us? Trail/Fade