Why Sierra Leone Beats Fierceness At 150th Kentucky Derby

  • Many see the 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby being a two-horse race between the betting favorite Fierceness (+250) and Sierra Leone (+425).
  • Although Fierceness is the fastest horse, they’ve been inconsistent across their five career starts.
  • Sierra Leone won both their races this season and drew a better post position than Fierceness.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The top two horses are clear-cut for Saturday’s 150th installment of the Kentucky Derby. However, there’s multiple reasons why you should be betting on Sierra Leone at USA online sportsbooks instead of the betting favorite, Fierceness.

Odds To Win 2024 Kentucky Derby

  • Fierceness +250
  • Sierra Leone +425
  • Forever Young +850
  • Catching Freedom +900
  • Just A Touch +1100
  • Honor Marie +1800

All eyes are on Fierceness, the fastest horse in the race based on speed measures from previous races. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt has +250 odds at USA online racebooks to win the 150th Kentucky Derby.

However, we think Sierra Leone’s +425 odds are more attractive coming from a better post position and a more consistent race history. He’s a better bet on the Kentucky Derby with a more valuable price.

Race History, Post Position Key Factors For Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone has done nothing but win in preparation for this year’s Kentucky Derby, including a first place finish at the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 6. Through four career starts, Sierra Leone is a more consistent winner than the speedster favorite Fierceness.

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Horse Career Starts Finishes Odds
Sierra Leone 4 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st +425
Fierceness 5 1st, 3rd, 1st, 7th, 1st +250

If that pattern continues, Fierceness is due for a disappointing finish at the Run for the Roses. Still, Kentucky online sportsbooks favor Fierceness even after an unfortunate post drawing.

Fierceness will race out of the No. 17 post position, a spot that no horse has ever won from at the Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone drew the No. 2 post position, which comes with a 7.4% win percentage and the highest show percentage at 26.6%.