XFL Week Nine Value Bets for Playoff Hopefuls

  • Through the first eight weeks of the season, only the Houston Roughnecks and the DC Defenders have clinched playoff spots.
  • The Arlington Renegades are likely to take the last playoff spot in the South, while the Seattle Sea Dragons and St. Louis BattleHawks battle it out for the final North playoff spot.
  • With the season nearly done, stats have become much more reliable as we have seen what each team can do for a few months.

HOUSTON – The XFL season is beginning to wind down as we find ourselves in the second-to-last week of the regular season. With the top spot in each division locked up, it is up to the remaining six teams to fight for the remaining two playoff spots.

With that in mind, the Seattle Sea Dragons facing off against the St. Louis BattleHawks is one of the highest stakes matchups, as the winner will likely find themselves capturing the last remaining North division playoff spot. With these two teams also being very evenly matched, online betting sites have the BattleHawks favored by just one point.

Week Nine XFL Slate Odds

Matchup: Money Line: Spread: Total:
Vegas Vipers @ Houston Roughnecks Vipers (+215) vs Roughnecks (-260) Roughnecks -6.5 44.0
Orlando Guardians @ San Antonio Brahmas Guardians (+105) vs Brahmas (-125) Brahmas -1.5 39.5
Arlington Renegades @ DC Defenders Renegades (+295) vs Defenders (-390) Defenders -8.5 41.5
Seattle Sea Dragons @ St. Louis BattleHawks Sea Dragons (EVEN) vs BattleHawks (-120) BattleHawks -1.0 46.0

Matchup to Fade

Among the teams playing, the matchup that is likely to be the toughest to predict is the bout between the Orlando Guardians and the San Antonio Brahmas. This is mainly because both teams are among the worst in the league, but have performed inconsistently.

Perhaps it is worth a small bet on a team like the Guardians to win as they have shown flashes of offensive prowess and have over double the number of touchdowns throughout the year than the Brahmas do. Yet, because we do not know if the Guardians that beat the undefeated DC Defenders or the Guardians that have lost every other game on the year will show up, it is safe to shelve them.

Vegas Vipers @ Houston Roughnecks

Despite the records of these two teams, this is a possible must-win game for Houston, mainly because they would clinch the top spot in the south and secure themselves homefield advantage in the playoffs. The Roughnecks money line would be a pretty easy pick here, but the -260 odds at XFL online sportsbooks are not very profitable for bettors.

Instead, we can look to the total of 44.0 as a likely under. The Roughnecks did start the year blazing hot, winning each of their first four games while scoring 20+, but have since taken a large downturn, scoring just 32 total points over their last two weeks. Combine this with their strong defense that has held most opponents to under 20 points and the under does look like an attractive option.

The Roughnecks also lead the league in both sacks and interceptions, meaning that unless they carry the brunt of scoring, the game should shape up as a defensive, gritty matchup.

Arlington Renegades @ DC Defenders

The same play will be a great option here, targeting the under on the total of 41.5. This is mainly because of the Renegades and their putrid offense that has averaged just one touchdown per week on the year combined with the Defenders being the only real ground-and-pound team in the league.

With the Renegades seemingly always scoring in the low double digits, the Defenders should have little problem gaining a lead and holding onto it through their league-leading rush attack that has gashed opponents for over 100 yards per week.

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While there is a worry considering the Defenders are on a three week streak of scoring 34 or more points, this has generally been because the teams they have faced are much more offensive, making them keep up in fast-paced games. This is a stark difference to the Renegades who are more defensive and try to win matchups by grinding their opponents down behind their turnover-producing secondary.

Seattle Sea Dragons @ St. Louis BattleHawks

Lastly, the Sea Dragons and BattleHawks enter the likely biggest game of the year, with the winner almost guaranteeing themselves the final playoff spot. In their week two matchup the BattleHawks narrowly won 20-18.

However, the best play to make here appears to be the over of 46.0, as both teams have been hot on offense in recent weeks, with the Sea Dragons scoring 24+ in three straight weeks while the BattleHawks have scored 20 or more in six straight weeks.

Despite their relatively tame first matchup, the high-stakes and drive to win should see top quarterbacks A.J. McCarron and Ben DiNucci continue the success they have had throughout the season, currently sitting as the top two QBs in nearly every passing statistic.

This all makes the near-even -110 odds on online sportsbooks a nice value in what should be an exciting game with lots of playoff implications.