Is There Value In The Packers’ Moneyline Odds Vs. Chicago Bears?

  • Aaron Rodgers has dominated the Chicago Bears - he has a 22-5 record against them in his career.
  • Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers have -750 odds to win against the Bears on Sunday.
  • However, math suggests there is little value in that moneyline, even with Rodgers’ stellar record against Chicago.

GREEN BAY, Wis. - “I still own you!” Aaron Rodgers roared to a crowd of jeering Chicago Bears fans back in Week 6. The touchdown celebration that Aaron Rodgers introduced to the world back then might get some replay on Sunday as the two teams meet again.

When asked about the exclamation by Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Rodgers was adamant that he was basically correct in his assertion - he does, in fact, own the Bears.

“I don’t know if you can question a whole lot of what I said,” Rodgers said. “We’ve had a good record over the years against them and won a lot of games. At some point, it will be used against me. It is what it is. I don’t regret saying it at all.”

For Bears fans, the worst part is that it’s undeniably true. Rodgers has a 22-5 record against the Bears (including a playoff win) in his NFL career. A record that good warrants a look at the Green Bay Packers' moneyline, no matter how dangerously slanted towards them it may be.

Green Bay Packers Vs. Chicago Bears Moneyline Odds

  • Chicago Bears +500
  • Green Bay Packers -750

The Packers have -750 odds at online sportsbooks to win the game, which gives them an implied chance of 84.11% to win when accounting for the vig. Rodgers’ stellar 22-5 record amounts to a winning percentage of 81.5% against the Bears, which is less than the Packers’ implied odds to win.

In other words, even though the Packers are wildly favored in this matchup, and Rodgers has been so dominant against this team, it’s unlikely that there is any value in their moneyline for NFL betting fans.

Still, it’s not very far off - and with the Pack being favored by 12.5 points on the spread, many might prefer to take what seems like a sure thing on the moneyline.

As far as the Bears go, rookie QB Justin Fields is medically cleared, which should represent a welcome relief from having to watch Andy Dalton, but Fields has not been a worldbeater in his rookie year.

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The Bears defense is quite solid, and is giving up the sixth-fewest passing yards in the NFL, but it’s never seemed to matter against Rodgers before - he just finds a way to win against them.