- Chris Daukaus is a -140 betting favorite over Derrick Lewis in the main event.
- Belal Muhammad has +250 odds as an underdog to Stephen Thompson.
- Raphael Assuncao is +220 on the moneyline against Ricky Simon.
LAS VEGAS – The UFC Apex will once again host a UFC Fight Night event, this time headlined by Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus.
Derrick Lewis Vs. Chris Daukaus
The main event likely has the betting odds that will surprise the most people. Everyone knows Lewis as the hard-hitting heavyweight who’s been a part of some of the best moments in the sport, but online sportsbooks have him listed as an underdog to the lesser-known Daukaus.
Daukaus vs Lewis Moneyline Odds
- Chris Daukaus -140
- Derrick Lewis +115
Although the line looks shocking, the numbers prove that Daukaus is rightfully given the shorter line. He absorbs just 3.40 significant strikes per minute while landing 9.03 of his own which would be a UFC all-time record if he had enough fights to qualify for the record books. He’s 4-0 in his UFC career and has finished all four by knockout in either the first or second round.
Lewis is consistently inconsistent having a 4-3 record in his last seven fights and sometimes looking like a UFC title contender while looking like a run-of-the-mill heavyweight at other times. He certainly has the knockout power to finish the fight at any moment, but his striking numbers (2.49 landed, 2.48 absorbed per minute) show an average fighter.
Belal Muhammad Vs. Stephen Thompson
Belal Muhammad and Stephen Thompson make for an interesting fight stylistically. Thompson is one of the best kickboxers the UFC has ever seen while Muhammad delivers an unrelenting pressure and loves to grind out decision victories. UFC betting sites may be leaving too much value on the underdog.
Muhammad vs Thompson Moneyline Odds
- Belal Muhammad +200
- Stephen Thompson -250
The way in which Thompson lost his last fight to Gilbert Burns could mirror itself in this meeting against Muhammad. Thompson was rendered useless once taken down which could be the case on Saturday as Muhammad averages 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes. The blueprint is there for Muhammad to follow and he’s talented enough to do so.
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Raphael Assuncao Vs. Ricky Simon
Raphael Assuncao, despite being 39-years-old and on a three-fight losing streak, could be worth betting on as a sizable underdog in his bout against Ricky Simon. Assuncao has fought a ton of big names like Jorge Masvidal, Urijah Faber, T.J. Dillashaw, Aljamain Sterling, Marlon Moraes, Rob Font and has actually beaten most of them.
Yet, he’s a big underdog on 2021’s last event.
Simon vs Assuncao Moneyline Odds
- Ricky Simon -185
- Raphael Assuncao +220
Simon is very reliant on his takedowns as he averages 6.93 per 15 minutes, but as the number indicates, he’s not always the best at capitalizing on his takedowns. He also loses striking exchanges on average, landing just 3.08 and taking 3.13 significant strikes per minute.
On the other hand, Assuncao has an 80% takedown defense and outstrikes opponents by 0.93 significant strikes per minute. He’s rightfully the underdog, but the line should be much closer to EVEN than it currently is.
Nick got involved with the world of sports at a young age and never turned his back on it. He graduated from Penn State University with a degree in Broadcast/Journalism. In his free time, you can catch him at the bottom of the leaderboards on any video game he’s playing.