Bet Miami to Continue Success as a Road Underdog in Game 1

  • The Miami Heat are 8.5-point underdogs in Game 1 of the NBA finals.
  • In the 2023 NBA Playoffs, the Miami Heat have won four of their last five games as an underdog of 8.5-points or more.

DENVER – The Denver Nuggets are -390 moneyline favorites against the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Miami’s playoff trends as a large road underdog gives value to their -105 odds to cover the 8.5-point spread.

Miami has been the betting underdog in 14 of 18 NBA Playoffs games this season. The Heat have covered the spread at online sportsbooks 79% of the time as an underdog.

NBA Finals Game 1 Betting Lines

Team: Spread: Moneyline: Total:
Miami Heat +8.5 (-105) +295 O219.0 (-110)
Denver Nuggets -8.5 (-115) -390 U219.0 (-110)

The Miami Heat are 7-3 against the spread as a road underdog in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. When the Heat are 8.5-point underdogs or greater like they are in Game 1, the Heat have won outright in five of those seven games.

Although the Nuggets are undefeated at home so far in the NBA Playoffs, the Miami Heat’s +295 moneyline odds at NBA online sportsbooks are valuable considering how effective they have been as a massive underdog.

Despite being 9-1 as a favorite in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, the Denver Nuggets have a 6-4 record against the spread and failed to cover in each of their last two games. Miami covered an 8.5-point spread in both of their matchups during the regular season.

NBA Finals Game 1 Total

During the NBA regular season, Miami averaged 109.5 points per game and was the lowest scoring team in the league. The Heat average just under 113 points per game on the road in the NBA Playoffs despite playing the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks, who each represent top-six scoring defenses in the NBA.

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The total has gone under 219.0 in each of Miami’s last three games as an underdog. As a home favorite, Denver Nuggets totals have gone under in three of their last four games.

Trends project Game 1 of the NBA Finals to go under the total on Thursday night.