Betting against Ryan Tannehill versus the Bills on MNF

  • Ryan Tannehill’s player prop bets for his Monday Night Football game against the Buffalo Bills are some of the best bets in the NFL because sportsbooks project him to have a good game.
  • Based on his overall history against the Bills and his specific performances in Buffalo, betting the under for Tannehill’s passing yards and passing touchdowns are strong bets while also betting the over for his interceptions.

BUFFALO, N.Y. – Unfortunately for those looking to bet the overs for Ryan Tannehill’s player props, Tannehill appears prime to go under both his passing yards and passing touchdowns prop bets and over his interception total prop against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

Ryan Tannehill prop betting odds

Prop Bet Over Under
Passing Yards O 216.5 (-115) U 216.5 (-115)
Passing Touchdowns O 1.5 (+175) U 1.5 (-240)
Interceptions O 0.5 (-145) U 0.5 (+110)

Bovada’s odds indicate that Tannehill is likely to struggle, with the sportsbook correlating his struggles to Tennessee’s expected demise as a ten-point underdog against the Buffalo Bills.

Betting against Ryan Tannehill’s history against the Bills

Ryan Tannehill’s career began with the Miami Dolphins, who are AFC East rivals with the Buffalo Bills and therefore play each other twice a year. Because of that rivalry, Tannehill has now played the Bills 13 times in his 10 years in the NFL.

If those past 13 games’ averages are any indication, then Tannehill is in for a below-average performance.

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Opponent Passing Yards Touchdowns Interceptions
Vs Buffalo 194.69 1.38 0.92
Vs Other Teams 237.90 1.52 0.73

That general poor performance that already points to the under for Tannehill’s passing touchdowns and yards prop as well as over for his interceptions gets even worse when splitting up his games based on location. Keep in mind that Tannehill has never played the Bills on the road as a member of the Titans.

  • At home versus the Bills (8 Games): 6-2 Win-Loss record, 201.63 passing yards per game, 2 touchdowns per game, with 0.88 interceptions per game
  • On the road in Buffalo (5 Games): 0-5 Win-Loss record, 183.6 passing yards per game, 0.4 touchdowns per game, while averaging 1 interception per game

It would have appeared that NFL sportsbooks had already projected too many passing yards and touchdowns and not enough interceptions for Ryan Tannehill this week considering his history against the Bills, but breaking it down based on location makes it clear that betting on Tannehill to go under 216.5 yards, over 0.5 interceptions, and under 1.5 touchdowns are all elite betting options.