Betting Odds For Trump’s Cabinet Departures

  • The COVID-19 crisis continues to have rapid effects on American life.
  • Betting odds on whether or not there will be a recession in Trump’s first term favor YES at -700.
  • Betting odds give HHS Secretary Alex Azar even odds vs. the field to be the next cabinet member dismissed from the administration.

WASHINGTON - The COVID-19 crisis has placed a lot of stress on the administration of President Donald J. Trump – not to mention the that it has placed on the people of the world.

Trump has demonstrated a serious concern with the economy and the well being of the economy, in his attempts to avoid a recession under his watch.

Sportsbooks, however, now offering odds on whether or not there will be a recession on Trump’s watch, which could affect Trump’s reelection odds

Will There Be A Recession In Trump's 1st Term?

  • Yes -700
  • No +425

The key to this bet is what the definition of “recession” is, in the context of the current stock market amid the Coronavirus Crisis.

In the last 30 days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen from an all-time peak at nearly 29,000 to around 19,000 points – including two separate days of historic falls.

Most people would assume that this qualifies as a recession, but a recession is actually measured by different things.

Per Bovada in order for a YES bet to cash, “the U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal).”

The COVID-19 crisis looks to be a long lasting one, but the projections are very much still up in the air, so it may or may not last long enough to cause a recession.

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The crisis is affecting other Trump administration betting odds as well. For example, take a look at the betting odds for which Trump administration member will be the next to depart.

Next White House Cabinet Member To Leave Administration:

  • Alex Azar (HHS) EVEN
  • Wilbur Ross (Commerce) +300
  • Steve Mnuchin (Treasury) +800
  • William Barr (Attorney General) +1000
  • Ben Carson (HUD) +1500
  • Mike Pompeo (State) +1500
  • Robert Wilkie (Veterans Affairs) +1500
  • Sonny Perdue (USDA) +2000
  • Betsy DeVos (Education) +2500
  • David Bernhardt (Interior) +5000
  • Elaine Chao (Transportation) +5000
  • Eugene Scalia (Labor) +5000
  • Mark Esper (Defense) +5000

Notice anything? The top three are all related to the COVID-19 crisis management and economic management.

Alex Azar, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, has even odds to be the next person dismissed from the cabinet, which makes sense given the pandemic breaking out throughout the country.

Azar is followed by the two Secretaries related most closely to economic development, Wilbur Ross at Commerce and Steve Mnuchin at Treasury.

Again, this makes a lot of sense – the Trump administration has demonstrated a large amount of concern with the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, and these two are the people who are most in charge of dealing with those impacts.

Make sure you wash your hands before and after placing these bets – and also generally!