- After Nebraska’s opening week loss to Northwestern, online sportsbooks have already indicated that Scott Frost is on the hot seat.
- Frost is favored to coach over 8.5 games with -240 odds because of the structure of his contract.
- Frost also opened as the outright favorite over the entire field to be the first head coach fired with -110 odds, but Geoff Collins at +350 may be a better bet.
DUBLIN – After a disastrous loss in Week Zero against a Northwestern team that went 3-9 last season, online sportsbooks have made it clear that Scott Frost is on his way out as Head Coach of the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Regular Season Games Coached by Scott Frost
- Over 8.5 -240
- Under 8.5 +175
Betting against Scott Frost getting fired right away
Scott Frost would have been the best bet in recent college football history to have gotten fired on an airplane following Nebraska’s loss to Northwestern since Lane Kiffin got let go by USC back in 2013 if not for one key reason: his contract.
Scott Frost’s salary will be reduced next year from $5 million to $4 million and his buyout in 2022 from $15 million to $7.5 million, according to AD Trev Alberts.
“In a way, Scott’s bet on himself,” Alberts said.
— Mitch Sherman (@mitchsherman) November 9, 2021
Online sportsbooks took that clause into account, as Nebraska’s schedule lines up exactly with that November deadline:
- Game 8: October 29th at home versus Illinois
- Game 9: November 5th at home versus Minnesota
It would be somewhat surprising to see a coach fired on a Tuesday, like November 1st is, so it may be a better bet to take the over and assume he gets let go after taking on the Gophers.
If Nebraska were to lose that game, then it is very likely Scott would be out, as many programs prefer to fire their head coaches early so that they can get a jump on any other schools that could also be looking for new head coaches.
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Betting on Geoff Collins to get fired first
Those odds are not the only indicator that Frost should avoid getting too comfortable, as CFB sportsbooks have also made him an outright favorite over the entire field when it comes to being the first coach to get fired.
First Coach to Permanently Leave Their Position
- Scott Frost -110
- Geoff Collins +350
- Jeff Scott +900
- Jedd Fisch +950
- Tim Albin +1000
- Karl Dorrell +1100
- David Shaw +950
- Steve Sarkisian +1200
- Dino Babers +1500
- Butch Jones +1800
Scott Frost is rightfully expected to get fired by online sportsbooks, but comparing his betting odds to the second leading contender, Geoff Collins, it may be worth betting on the underdog.
Collins has a 9-25 record at Georgia Tech, which is poor enough to be a 25%-win percentage. That record is poor enough to make Scott’s 15-30 (33%-win percentage) look stellar.
Geoff’s buyout situation has a similar drop-down date to Scott’s, but it is after the season. That may sound like he has more safety than him but that is likely untrue given two factors:
Geoff Collins is not an endeared figure in Georgia Tech’s program like Scott Frost is from his playing days.
Collins’ buyout drops from $10.5 million to $7.2 million. That is not an insignificant amount, but Georgia Tech would save considerably less money waiting to fire Collins than Nebraska would by waiting to axe Scott Frost.
Geoff Collins’ Georgia Tech squad opens the season against number four ranked Clemson, meaning things could get ugly early in the season for the Yellow Jackets.
It may get so bad that Geoff Collins is out of his job before Scott Frost and the rest of his unfortunate competitors.