Bills An Early Double-Digit Favorite With Tua Not Cleared

  • The Buffalo Bills have -110 odds to cover -10.5 points against the Miami Dolphins.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has yet to clear concussion protocol.
  • Buffalo has covered three of five games when a favorite by 10+ points.

BUFFALO, N.Y. – The Buffalo Bills have opened as the largest favorite in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs over the Miami Dolphins at -10.5 points. There are plenty of factors that play into this and trends that back them covering the spread.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

  • Bills -10.5 (-110)
  • Dolphins +10.5 (-110)

The line hasn’t moved much since it opened on online sportsbooks at 11 points and the public has been consistently laying action on Buffalo anyways with 72% of bets and 80% of the total handle.

Bills To Have No Issues Winning Or Covering ATS

The Bills are coming off of a tremendous season that saw them go 8-7-1 ATS, however, they covered by +3.3 points on average and held an average winning margin of 10.6 points. Miami, on the other hand, is a similar 9-8 ATS, but are failing to cover the spread this season by -1.2 points.

Buffalo has also shattered double-digit spreads in recent years when listed as that large of a favorite on those NFL betting sites. In their last five games as a 10+ point favorite at home, they have gone 3-2 ATS since 2016. On the outright winning side of things, when that large of a favorite, they are 16-3 S/U.

Miami tells a different story though when a double-digit underdog on the road with their 3-5 ATS record in that scenario since 2012. Also, in the last 17 games that they’ve been a road dog of 10+ points, they are an abysmal 3-14 on the moneyline.

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Dolphins QB Controversy To Have An Effect

One factor behind Buffalo opening as a 10.5-point favorite comes with Miami having no answer at who will start QB for this game. As the situation sits right now, Tua Tagovailoa is not yet cleared to play after suffering his second concussion of the season. With concussions a serious topic in the NFL right now, it is hard seeing Tua suit up for this one considering his history with the injury already.

As for Tua’s direct backup, Teddy Bridgewater, he is on the healthier side of a dislocated finger in his throwing hand which held him out of Miami’s Week 18 win over the New York Jets. Skylar Thompson, the rookie third-string QB, is also listed as questionable after an undisclosed injury according to head coach, Mike McDaniel.

With Tua likely out, many can expect Bridgewater to suit up and Thompson listed as the QB2 with Teddy the healthiest of the three.

Bills to cover 10.5 points?