- Purdy offers value at -108 to throw over 1.5 touchdowns.
- Under 28.5 pass attempts sits at -122.
- With a TD percentage of 9.1% in the last 4 weeks, Purdy has been the face of efficiency.
SAN FRANCISCO – The most recent Mr. Irrelevant, rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, will look to lead the odds-on-favorite 49ers (-500) to a win in the NFC Wild Card round against the division rival Seattle Seahawks this Saturday.
Online sportsbooks have since published various passing props for Purdy, some of which offering odds that bettors can take advantage of, including continuing his 6-game streak of more than 1.5 touchdowns (-108).
Brock Purdy: The Image of Consistency and Efficiency
Since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo after an injury, Purdy has been impressive, throwing for 13 touchdowns in 6 games with an undefeated record. Even more impressive, Purdy has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in every game, making his -108 odds to throw over 1.5 touchdowns a great value.
Despite being heavy favorites (-10) against the Seahawks, Purdy has been incredibly efficient, throwing for a touchdown on 9.1% of his throws in the last 4 weeks, trailing only Josh Allen. Bettors will however want to pay special attention to recent weather developments as the game approaches, which may shift odds and impact Purdy’s ability to throw as consistently as he has in recent weeks.
This efficiency has translated to another development: Purdy does not need to throw the ball very much as the 49ers consistently build leads, making his under 28.5 pass attempts prop an attractive option.
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Since Garoppolo’s early injury in week 13, Purdy has gone over this line just twice. Combined with potential weather concerns, this could be an early value for NFL bettors before forecasts become clearer.
Taking a deeper dive into the sole game where he did attempt more than 29 passes as the starter, against the Raiders, reveals there is little to worry about. The Raiders game featured a final game total of 71 points scored, significantly higher than the 42.5 expected in this matchup; as well as a season-high 34 points given up opposed to the 49ers average of 16.3 points allowed for the whole year.
With the Seahawks putting up a paltry 20 total points in 2 matchups with the 49ers this year and potential heavy wind or rain, we can expect the game to be run-heavy as the 49ers are expected to build an early lead and grind out time of possession as they did in the previous 2 regular season matchups.
Brock Purdy under 28.5 pass attempts (-122)
Jeremias began writing 4 years ago after beginning his career at Florida State University. He mainly focuses on using analytics and statistics to educate readers on trends and discoveries to get a leg up on sportsbooks. He mainly focuses on NFL, NHL, and NBA. During his free time, you can find him researching, writing, and betting on various sports.