Daily Sports Betting Preview 3/22/2021: March Madness Daily Preview

  • The Abilene Christian Wildcats have +175 odds to take down the UCLA Bruins.
  • The Colorado Buffaloes have +100 odds to beat the Florida State Seminoles.
  • The LSU Tigers are five-point underdogs against the Michigan Wolverines.

INDIANAPOLIS - Welcome to the Daily Sports Betting Preview - Monday March Madness edition!

Today’s Preview is focused entirely on March Madness betting, with three excellent matchups broken down. First, the Abilene Christian Wildcats and the UCLA Bruins compete as the 14 and 11 seeds, each looking to make something of a miracle run.

Then, the Colorado Buffaloes face off against the Florida State Seminoles in what appears to be a close matchup based on the rankings and the odds.

Finally, the LSU Tigers take on the Michigan Wolverines, in a matchup that will see the winner face off against the winner of the previous matchup.

There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get started!

Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins Betting

Both Abilene Christian and UCLA upset their First Round opponents in order to make it to the Second Round.

Abilene Christian took down the mighty Texas Longhorns, defeating the #3 seed by one point, with a score of 53-52. UCLA, meanwhile, defeated the sixth-seeded BYU Cougars by a score of 73-62.

Abilene Christian and UCLA are battling for the right to take on the winner of Alabama’s matchup against Maryland. While Abilene Christian has a better record than UCLA, the Bruins have faced a more difficult schedule.

Thus, it’s UCLA who finds themselves favored in this matchup.

Abilene Christian vs. UCLA Moneyline

  • Abilene Christian +175
  • UCLA -210

On the moneyline, UCLA’s odds are sitting at -210 on the online sportsbooks, which carries an implied win percentage around 67%. Abilene Christian’s +175 odds give an implied winning percentage of around 36%.

Note that these percentages will not add up to an even 100 because of the vig - the cut the sportsbooks take.

However, one way of looking at this game is to take those percentages and compare them to the percentages generated by ESPN’s BPI. According to BPI, Abilene Christian has a 35.9% chance to win the game, while UCLA has a 64.1% chance to win.

This implies that the moneyline for this matchup could hold some value for Abilene Christian bettors.

UCLA bettors are wagering on a line that implies a higher chance of winning than they actually have according to BPI. This would make the UCLA moneyline bad value - although not necessarily a bad bet, per se.

College basketball betting fans will have to make choices like this when wagering - a choice between mild bad value on the favorite and medium positive value on the underdog.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting

The Colorado Buffaloes romped all over Georgetown in the First Round, and look like an incredibly dangerous team in the tournament.

The Florida State Seminoles, on the other hand, struggled with UNC Greensboro, winning by ten points in a low-scoring game. The Seminoles didn’t even make a single three-pointer in their win which can be seen as impressive and worrisome at the same time.

In the matchup between these two teams, it’s hard to differentiate who should be favored and who shouldn’t be.

After all, this is a matchup between a four seed and a five seed - it should be close.

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Colorado vs. Florida State Moneyline

  • Colorado EVEN
  • Florida State -120

This matchup is intriguing, as the sportsbooks have it slanted a small amount towards Florida State, the higher seed.

However, ESPN’s BPI analysis actually gives the Buffaloes a 52.8% chance of winning this matchup, which is an interesting data point.

If one trusts BPI, it seems like the Buffaloes could be a solid wager on the moneyline - getting even odds on the statistical favorite, especially after how good their First Round performance was, is a solid play.

Colorado vs. Florida State Spread

  • Colorado +1.5 (-115)
  • Florida State -1.5 (-105)

This spread does not perfectly balance the two teams, with Colorado -1.5 having -115 odds and Florida State -1.5 having -105 odds.

That said, it can be a useful tool for bettors who expect this to be a close matchup in terms of scoring. This is effectively a method of buying points, where 1.5 points going either way will cost bettors a relatively similar amount.

This looks to be one of the best matchups on the board this March Madness, and the winner of it could be poised to make a deep run.

LSU Tigers vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting

The LSU Tigers and the Michigan Wolverines are battling to be the team that stands in the way of the potential deep run from either FSU or Colorado.

The Tigers are relative underdogs, but for an eighth seed facing off against a first seed, they aren’t too far behind.

LSU vs. Michigan Moneyline

  • LSU +175
  • Michigan -210

This is not to say that the Tigers are not legitimate underdogs - they’re being given the same odds as Abilene Christian against UCLA.

However, in terms of BPI, it seems like LSU is in a much worse position in this matchup than Abilene Christian is in theirs. BPI gives LSU a 29.4% chance of winning this matchup, while Michigan has a 70.6% chance of winning.

This means that the favorites, the Michigan Wolverines, are ostensibly being underrated by the spread. This could be a good moneyline to get in on the Wolverines.

LSU vs. Michigan Spread

  • LSU +5.0
  • Michigan -.5.0

On the spread, the matchup is once again fairly close - the sportsbooks seem to have a lot of respect for LSU.

Michigan has been spectacular against the spread this season, with a record of 17-8 ATS overall. LSU, meanwhile, has been fairly mediocre, with a 14-13-1 ATS record.

This, combined with how the sportsbooks seem to be mildly overrating LSU, could mean that Michigan bettors might want to take the spread as well.

This is a tough situation, as Michigan is a deserving favorite, and likely has some extra value in their lines for March Madness betting fans to grab.

However, laying the favorite has been tough in this tournament, with many elite teams already falling, including a #1 seed in Illinois.

That’s why it’s called March Madness, and not March Predictability.

Good luck!