Eagles’ Offensive Philosophy Gives Mahomes H2H Props Value

  • Patrick Mahomes has been given a H2H pass completions spread of -4.5 vs Jalen Hurts at -125 odds.
  • On the year, Mahomes averages nearly 26 completions per game to Hurts’ 20.
  • Despite being the best pass yardage defense, the Eagles are average in completions allowed.

GLENDALE, Ariz. – Patrick Mahomes captured his second regular season MVP award Thursday night. He will now look to captain the Kansas City Chiefs against the odds-on-favorite Philadelphia Eagles and become the first MVP to win the Super Bowl in the same season since Kurt Warner did it in 1999.

Almost all head-to-head passing props heavily favor Mahomes, but utilizing the spread for completions can provide some value at a solid -125 odds. Online betting sites have thus given the MVP a -4.5 pass completions spread against Hurts and the run-first Eagles.

Pass Completions Prop Attacks Rare Eagles Defensive Weakness

Who Will Have More Completions in the game?

  • Patrick Mahomes -4.5 (-125)
  • Jalen Hurts +4.5 (-105)

While the Eagles defense has been the best yardage defense on the season, their Achilles’ Heel has been the completions they allow, being middle-of-the-pack in the regular season at 20.6 allowed per game. Combine this with Mahomes averaging about six completions more than Hurts, and the spread of -4.5 seems very achievable.

The Eagles offense also is predicated mainly on the run both because of their talented backfield duo of Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell as well as Hurts. With 50.04% of their plays being a run, the Eagles are one of only a handful of teams to have less pass than run plays on the year.

With a ground-and-pound gameplan, it is unlikely that Hurts would garner the amount of completions necessary to stay close with Mahomes and the Chiefs’ nearly 62% pass play percentage.

The season game log supports this as well, with Hurts logging 25 or more completions just three times in the regular season as a whole compared to Mahomes’ whopping 10 games.

Another important development is the Eagles’ strong big-play defense that has allowed just one play over 25 yards in the whole postseason to Saquon Barkley. The Chiefs’ opponents have also similarly held Mahomes to no pass plays of 30 or more yards. If this trend continues, Mahomes will have to be more methodical in his drives, tossing many more completions than usual if he cannot find a big throw downfield.

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Chiefs Will Continue to Throw Even When Winning

A look at the advanced statistics can make the -4.5 completions spread posted by online sportsbooks that much of a better value at -125 odds.

Pass Rate Over Expectation is a stat that tracks how often each team passes when placed in game scripts or field positions that dictate a run should be used. It is little surprise that the Chiefs rank atop this list, with a massive 10.8% PROE; the Eagles on the other hand are thirteenth with a -1.7% PROE.

What this means is that when the Eagles are put in assumed pass situations, they will tend to mix in more runs than is typical, while the Chiefs have a propensity to pass regardless of being up a lot, on the goal line, on short distance downs, etc.

Thus, the -125 odds are quite a good value with most stats supporting Mahomes as the prospective pass completions leader in the game and it is not particularly close against the run-heavy identity of the Eagles, making his -4.5 spread a great Super Bowl prop.

Patrick Mahomes -4.5 Completions H2H Vs Jalen Hurts (-125)