How the Draw Helps Matteo Berrettini US Open Odds

  • Matteo Berrettini has +1200 odds to win US Open – the fifth shortest.
  • Completing his first round, Berrettini’s odds jumped Jannik Sinner (+1400).

FLUSHING, N.Y. – With the top half of the Men’s US Open bracket completing its first round on Monday, the path to victory has become clearer. Matteo Berrettini is one who has benefitted early on, now with +1200 odds to win the 2022 US Open.

Berrettini wasn’t even in the top 8 moving into the tournament, before Novak Djokovic was excluded from the main draw. In fact, his +4000 odds sat at lucky #13 around the likes of Denis Shapovalov (+4000) and Cameron Noirre (+5000).

Now, the Italian could face the #1 seed Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, should all go according to plan.

Berrettini’s Path to Medvedev

Berrettini is a strong favorite for Round 2, sitting as a 6.5-game favorite and sports -725 moneyline odds to beat Hugo Grenier.

Assuming a victory for Berrettini, his next US Open opponent would likely be Andy Murray (a current -480 favorite over Emilio Nava) for Round 3. Murray has gotten the better of Berrettini on hard court (one 7-6, 7-6 victory in 2019), but the Italian holds a 2-0 advantage since.

Heading into the Fourth Round, Berrettini will have one of four options.

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  • Daniel Elahi Galan – a qualifier who beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in Round 1.
  • Jordan Thompson – one who hasn’t played the best during the 2022 season.
  • Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – the likely competitor to Berrettini.
  • Marton Fucsovics – a Hungarian who hasn’t been past the US Open’s third round.

It is assumed that US sportsbooks would favor Berrettini over Davidovich Fokina. Despite losing to him on clay last season, Berrettini has proven his ability to go far in Grand Slams, especially on hard surfaces. Davidovich Fokina is living off his 2020 season – finishing 4th in New York – while Berrettini reached the Australian Open semifinals this season.

Berrettini has also reached at least the quarterfinals in his last four slams, regardless of court selection.

In the quarterfinals, a matchup with #5 Casper Ruud is likely. While this five-match head-to-head has been a real back and forth, Berrettini’s handling of Ruud in the 2020 US Open could be the most telling. Berrettini won 3:0 (6:4) (6:4) (6:2).

The eventual path would likely lead to Medvedev, who has his own tough challengers to consider in the quarter.