Who Will Be the Number One Seed in the AFC?

  • The Buffalo Bills have +280 odds to be the number one seed in the AFC.
  • The Bills have -250 odds to win the AFC East, reflecting relative divisional dominance.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have +650 odds to be the number one seed, but a much tougher division.

LAS VEGAS – The NFL Season kicks off on September 8, and the odds for the AFC’s number one seed favor the Buffalo Bills.

AFC Number One Seed Odds

  • Buffalo Bills +280
  • Kansas City Chiefs +650
  • Baltimore Ravens +750
  • Denver Broncos +750
  • Los Angeles Chargers +950
  • Cincinnati Bengals +1000
  • Indianapolis Colts +1100
  • New England Patriots +1600
  • Tennessee Titans +1600
  • Miami Dolphins +1800
  • Cleveland Browns +2200
  • Las Vegas Raiders +3000
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +4500
  • Houston Texans +10000
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +10000
  • New York Jets +10000

In contrast to the NFC, where the top teams play in easier divisions, the AFC’s top teams are in very tough ones.

Buffalo Bills, +280 Odds to Be Number One Seed in AFC

The Bills play in one of the weaker AFC divisions, but both the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins are expected to be average-to-good teams in the 2022-23 season.

The Bills have -250 odds to finish first in their division, which is about where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a much weaker NFC South – a compliment to how good the sportsbooks think the Bills are.

It’s clear that the online sportsbooks believe that the Bills are a cut above the rest of the NFL, as they have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +550.

Kansas City Chiefs, +650 Odds To Be Number One Seed in AFC

The Kansas City Chiefs have not won less than 12 games since 2017 – and winning 12 games would put them firmly in contention for the number one seed.

The gap between the Chiefs and the Bills can be mostly chalked up to divisional issues – the Chiefs play in the toughest division in the AFC, and maybe the toughest division in football.

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They’ll face the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers two times each, and all of those teams are expected to be average-to-great teams in the 2022-23 season.

Playing that many games against good teams is a tough task, and it’s why the Chiefs are at +650 odds to be the number one seed, while the Bills are at +280.

Baltimore Ravens, +750 Odds To Be Number One Seed in AFC

The Ravens have an easier division than expected in the AFC, with the suspension of Deshaun Watson removing a major divisional threat.

The Ravens will have one game against the Cleveland Browns after Watson’s suspension has been served, but they will also have one against the Watson-less Browns.

Baltimore will still have to fend off the Cincinnati Bengals, who are hot on their heels in terms of divisional odds, with +170 odds to win the AFC North compared to the Ravens’ +140 odds.

In that context, the Ravens might be a bit overvalued on these odds boards, since they have to deal with the Bengals as well as one game of Watson.