Justin Fields’ Value On Passing Yards Prop

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers blitz at a league high rate of 36.4% of opponents drop backs.
  • Justin Fields is averaging a total of 4 passing yards per drop back Vs. the blitz.
  • Oddsmakers have listed Justin Fields passing yard total at 213.5 yard with -115 odds.

TAMPA, Fla. – QB Justin Fields has had a tough time so far in the NFL, and this weekend’s matchup with the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t do him any favors.

Fields has struggled with the blitz going all the way back to his days at Ohio State. He sported an alarming 12% sack rate at Ohio State and averaged only 4 yards per drop back when blitzed according to Sports Info Solutions. This was the main knock on Justin Fields coming out of college, and is why many people do not believe he is NFL ready just yet.

Justin Field’s documented struggles against the blitz will be emphasized this Sunday in a matchup with the Bucs. Tampa’s blitz is at a league high 36.6% rate according to TruMedia. When pressured, Fields is averaging only 4 passing yards per drop back, which makes him statistically the worst quarterback in the league when under siege. This is not a good recipe for Fields to succeed on Sunday.

Regulated online sportsbooks have listed Justin Fields passing yard total at 213.5 yards at -115 odds this Sunday. It is unlikely that the Chicago Bears coaching staff will be able to magically solve Justin Fields’ issues against the blitz overnight, making the under bet look like a very strong play for sports bettors.

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The DFS Angle

To make matters worse, Justin Fields sports a 20% sack rate this season when being pressured by the defense. The Buccaneers defense comes in at $4000 on DraftKings. While spending up at defense is rarely optimal, a blitz happy Bucs team against a quarterback that cannot handle pressure might be an exception. At $4000, the Buccaneers defense does not project to be highly owned, as most players will elect to spend down at the position.

The game begins on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. EST and will be airing on CBS.