- The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are meeting in Buffalo, as neither team has lost a game this year.
- Both teams have beat divisional opponent, the New York Jets, while the Pats also have an AFC East victory over the Miami Dolphins.
- Due to the Bills’ defense, don’t expect the home team to roll over and lose to the Patriots.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Each week there is one game in the NFL that bettors are certain will hit with no problems. Bettors tend to put more than their allotted weekly bankroll on it and the result is usually not positive.
There is no such thing as a lock or a guarantee in sports and this week’s slate of games has one that fits this description – the New England Patriots versus the Buffalo Bills.
Sure, New England has covered the spread the last five times they have played in Buffalo. Sure, New England has won nine of the last ten against AFC East opponents (thanks Dolphins for the “Miami Miracle” Dolphins).
However, the Bills have entered this season with something to prove and the Patriots may have hit a slight roadblock before their third-straight AFC East matchup.
After Week 3, the Pats were forced to put their Pro-Bowl fullback James Develin on the IR due to a neck injury. While this may not seem like it is much of a loss, the Patriots are known for using the fullback position more than anybody in the league.
The Pats love running 21 personnel (two backs and one tight end) and without Develin in the backfield, the Patriots could run into issues against a very talented Bills’ defense.
This year, the Bills’ defense has plenty of statistics to back up the claim that they are not a team to mess with. Because of the Bills’ defense, the Bills will beat the Patriots on Sunday or at the very least cover the spread.
To explain, the Bills have allowed the:
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- 2nd fewest receptions over 20 yards (6)
- 3rd worst QB rating (70.2)
- 4th fewest points per game (15.7)
- 5th fewest yards per game (299.7)
- 6th fewest yards per play (4.8)
- 7th fewest penalty yards (161)
- 10th fewest first downs (18.3)
The Bills are one of four teams in the NFL without a pass of 40 yards or more (LA Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and Tennessee Titans). Their pass defense is also one of three teams in the NFL with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed (LA Rams and New England Patriots).
But the Bills’ defensive stats don’t stop here. The Bills are also responsible for the:
- 3rd most pass deflections (27)
- 3rd most interceptions (4)
- 5th most fumble recovering (3)
- 8th best defensive 3rd down percentage (13/40, 32%)
There is no denying that the Bills have worked their way into the upper half of the AFC but their real test comes Sunday when the Patriots travel to Buffalo.
Since the Bills’ Week 11 bye last year, the team is 4-1 at home, allowing just 19 points per game. Though last year the Bills were 4-4 at home, the year prior they touted a home record of 6-2.
Josh Allen is 5-2 at home in his career but has yet to face the Patriots in Buffalo. There is no doubt that the Bills Mafia will be quite boisterous in cheering for the Bills as well as making things difficult for the Pats.
With this, bettors at US sportsbooks should consider placing a wager on the Bills to win (+265) or to cover the spread (+7). Roughly two-thirds of the action has been put on the Patriots moneyline and over three-quarters of the public has loaded up on the Patriots odds to cover.
One of the most popular NFL betting tips and advice state that bettors should fade the public (or bet on the opposite side of the heavy majority). If you’re still not convinced, just remember, “scared money don’t make no money”.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.