Presidential Betting Odds Say Trump, Polls Say Biden – Who To Trust?

  • Headlines noted that Joe Biden is taking the lead over Donald Trump in many political polls across the US.
  • The betting odds on the 2024 election still favor Trump, though Joe Biden’s election odds are not far behind.

NEW YORK - Joe Biden now leads Donald Trump in 10 polls per MSN headlines this morning, but what do the political betting odds say?

Recent Presidential Polls

Poll Biden Support (%) Trump Support (%)
FAU and Mainstreet 47 45
RMG Research 44 43
Data for Progress 47 46
Ipsos 41 37
Quinnipiac 48 45
Marquette 45 44
Marist College 50 48
I&I/TIPP 43 40
Noble Predictive 44 43
Progress Action Fund 46 45

*Poll data pulled from MSN

At time of writing, Donald Trump's odds to be elected president sit favored at +105.

The odds for Joe Biden to be reelected aren’t far behind at +120.

Indicating a close race between the two, the next group of candidates are seen as long shots.

Odds To Become President

  • Michelle Obama +2500
  • Robert Kennedy Jr. +3000
  • Gavin Newsom +4500
  • Kamala Harris +7000

Only seven months exist between now and the election, but both online sportsbooks and political polls will be on top of things between then.

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Odds are often a better indicator of political success, as polls are merely a grouping of a small cohort, while odds undergo data and analytics.

In fact, the nine polls listed above totaled just over 12,000 people - excluding the Marquette Law School poll - failing to truly represent the nation's outlook, with one person representing roughly 27,500 people.

While US election betting odds can be influenced by large bets, media coverage, and personal opinion, it's less likely to be wrong in the long run.

But, Biden was a +1500 underdog on election night in 2020, proving that anything can happen, and nobody really knows what’s going on.