Reviewing Kentucky Derby Odds Changes Since March

  • Forte now holds +250 odds to win the Kentucky Derby after being +900 in March.
  • Tapit Trice is trending upwards at +700, while Kingsbarns is trending down at +1200.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With less than two weeks to go until the Kentucky Derby, the horses with the biggest line movements since the beginning of March is Forte.

Kentucky Derby Odds

Horse Odds
Forte +250
Tapit Trice +700
Practical Move +900
Derma Sotogake +1000
Angel Of Empire +1200
Kingsbarns +1200

Now holding +250 odds to win the Kentucky Derby, Forte was +900 when Arabian Knight was the favorite (+550) in March.

After two impressive wins at the 2023 Fountain of Youth (G2) and the 2023 Florida Derby (G1), Forte became the Kentucky Derby betting favorite.

Tapit Trice is another horse whose odds have shortened, from +1400 to +700. The horse’s Kentucky Derby odds switched after a first-place finish at the 2023 Blue Grass Stakes (G1).

But, Kingsbarns odds are trending in the wrong direction. The colt had a leap from +1400 to +800, similarly to Tapit Trice, but has since returned to +1200.

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Why are Tapit Trice’s Derby Odds Shorter than Kingsbarns?

Both horses are trained by Todd Pletcher and have multiple first place finishes in 2023, yet there is a vast separation in odds at the online sportsbooks. The horses’ odds trending in opposite directions have less to do with performance and more to do with their jockeys.

Kingsbarns currently doesn’t have a rider for the Kentucky Derby and has been rode by different jockeys in each of the horses three wins this year, one of them by Tapit Trice’s jockey Luis Saez. Saez is the defending Championship Meet titlist, an award given to the jockey with the most wins.

Kingsbarns has potential to win at Churchill Downs, but his odds have diminished in value due to jockey uncertainty. More will continue to happen with the odds changing until the Saturday May 6 running happens.