- Both the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers are some of the highest third-quarter scoring teams.
- George Kittle and Jarvis Landry make excellent scoring options as seen from their red zone target share.
- With Jimmy Garoppolo throwing an interception in every game thus far, look for this trend to continue.
SAN FRANCISCO – Monday Night Football will feature an undefeated San Francisco 49ers team hosting the Cleveland Browns.
Before the season began, many believed the Browns would have been the team without a loss to their name on the year and the Niners would have been playing below expectations.
However, these two teams have the ability to balance out the NFL storylines when kickoff takes place on ESPN at 8:15 p.m. EST.
The home-team 49ers (-5) are the favorite but oddsmakers at sportsbooks for US players are giving them quite the spread to cover. San Francisco (-220) comes in with the second-highest point differential in the league (New England Patriots), as they look to defend their undefeated record.
The Browns (+190) finally caught some strides last week against the Baltimore Ravens in what was considered a must-win for the organization.
With a total points projection of 48, the books are looking at this game to be a middle of the road scoring affair. Broken down, the Browns are projected to score 21, while the Niners are set just higher at 26.5 points.
Scoring will play a big role in this game, obviously, but the focus will be on the third quarter. As both of these teams struggle to start games, San Francisco leads all teams in points scored per game in the 3rd quarter (12.7). Likewise, the Browns (8.8) are just behind in sixth place.
The point total for the third quarter sits at a lowly 9.5 points, similar to that of the game’s opening. The Niners have scored on two opening drives to start the third and also put together a short touchdown drive on the 2nd possession of the quarter after the Pittsburgh Steelers started with the ball.
On the flip side, the Browns are notorious for scoring late in the third. In every game thus far, the Browns have scored a touchdown with less than five minutes on the clock in the third. Look for these teams to make their adjustments and beat this 9.5-point projection.
Continuing through the second half, that late third-quarter touchdown tends to drop the Browns in fourth-quarter scoring to only four points per game (25th). Meanwhile, the Niners keep it going, posting an additional 8.3 points (6th) in the final 15 minutes.
Knowing this data can provide insight into additional prop bets as well. For the highest-scoring quarter, the third quarter (+500) is the second biggest longshot – even after a tie. The first quarter (+600) bottoms out the odds.
Other Prop Bets In The Browns-49ers Games
Scoring props can still be exploited in this Monday Night Football game. Despite the odds being rather high, bettors should feel comfortable taking a wager on a score happening in the last two minutes of the 1st half (-290).
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In under two minutes, the Browns allowed a touchdown in Week 1 and have kicked a field goal in the closing seconds during their other three games. For the 49ers, two of their three games have seen points scored (by the Niners) in the half’s closing minute.
Though the Browns struggle out the gates, a bettor might be inclined to take a chance on their first-half success. Cleveland is only projected at 9.5 points at halftime, giving bettors an over (-130) that can easily be managed.
The Browns have scored 7, 16, 6, and 10 points during the first half in their opening game. Cvoming off a win, they might be ready to keep the 40 points they scored against the Ravens to overlap into this matchup.
Either way, bettors should look for points to be scored in this game. As far as who will score in the Browns and 49ers game, Jarvis Landry, George Kittle, and Jeff Wilson allow for interesting betting opportunities.
Kittle leads all players in this game with red zone targets (7) and has caught five on them. Landry has seen six targets but has only been able to bring in one of those targets. With both of them combining for only one red zone touchdown, they both seem to be due.
If Landry (+1000) scores first or Kittle beats him to the punch (+600), bettors would be highly satisfied with their payouts.
Landry has seen the looks in the most important moments of the Browns’ previous games, so don’t be surprised to even seen Landry score two touchdowns (+1600).
As for Wilson (+1000), his 13 touches in the red zone more than double that of the 49ers other two running backs as well as Jimmy Garoppolo. Wilson has scored four touchdowns in the red zone – of seven for San Francisco on the year – and can manage to make it happen again against the Browns.
With two other props left, the focus stays on the 49ers’ offense. Dante Pettis, with 27 receiving yards on the year, is projected to receive 29.5 yards. Pettis ranks 140th in air years, so seeing a deep ball thrown his way is doubtful, despite his claim to be able to run a sub-4.4 40. Taking the under wouldn’t be discouraged.
As for the guy throwing him the ball, Garoppolo is known for taking care of the ball but the numbers don’t support this claim. The Niners lead the league in giveaways per game (2.77) even though most have come from fumbles.
Still, Garoppolo has managed to throw four interceptions on the year, with at least one coming in every game. If Garoppolo throws an interception against the Browns (-150), bettors would reap the award associated with the risk of seeing this trend continue.
Michael spends most of his time betting on over/unders and analyzing algorithms in attempts to beat the book. His focus on statistics comes from an early understanding of mathematics as well as knowledge of opportunity costs. Michael enjoys playing basketball and reading about the NBA whenever he has the free time. When he is not writing, he can be found in Mississippi hitting the sportsbooks and enjoying a margarita… on the rocks, no salt.