Waste Management Betting Preview: Best Bet Based On Data

  • Using important stats from last year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open to create a model for this year’s golfers based on their recent form suggests that Christiaan Bezuidenhout is the best bet to win at +8000.
  • Greyson Sigg, Alexander Bjork, and Victor Perez are other good bets for the top ten TPC Scottsdale.

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Data from last year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open suggests that the best bet for the most exciting tournament in golf is not back-to-back champion Scottie Scheffler, but instead +8000 longshot Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Betting on Bezuidenhout at USA online sportsbooks is a bet on last year’s leaderboard following these steps using stats from DataGolf.com:

  1. The top ten golfers at last year’s Waste Management averaged 1.18 strokes gained on approach, 0.63 putting, 0.52 around the green, and .16 strokes off the tee.
  2. Weighting those averages to percentages (approach is 42%, putting is 23%, around the green is 19%, and off the tee is 16%).
  3. Applying those percentages to the strokes gained statistics of each golfer since November 1, 2023, to get a feel for recent form.

Essentially, those steps create a model for the Waste Management Open that can be used to bet at golf online sportsbooks based on last year’s results.

Outside of just betting on the Waste Management winner, bettors can gamble on top 10 finishers as well.

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The top 10 players from the model created above are listed below, with their model-created values, outright winner odds, and top ten finisher odds at Bovada.

Golfers Model Value Winner Odds Top Ten Odds
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.91154 +8000 +650
Justin Thomas 0.73211 +1000 -115
Scottie Scheffler 0.70144 +500 -200
Alexander Bjork 0.69333 +20000 +900
Adam Scott 0.60392 +5500 +375
Greyson Sigg 0.52127 +25000 +1200
Victor Perez 0.48633 +12500 +650
Eric Cole 0.46324 +5000 +325
J.T. Poston 0.45701 +4000 +225
Tom Hoge 0.44615 +8000 +650

Those top ten odds show that Christiaan Bezuidenhout is also among the best bets to finish in the top ten at the Waste Management Open at +650, but he is not the only golfer with long odds.

Other notable top ten gambling options according to the model we created for this Waste Management betting preview include Greyson Sigg at +1200, Alexander Bjork at +900, and Victor Perez at +650.