- A.J. Brown under 5.5 receptions comes in at -130 odds
- A receiving yards prop of 71.5 is -114 for the over or under
- Brown has disappeared in the playoffs, posting just seven receptions for 50 yards and no touchdowns over two games
GLENDALE Ariz. – A.J. Brown will look to break his postseason skid for the Philadelphia Eagles against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. Brown finished the regular season ranked third in yards per catch.
Despite the quiet playoff run for Brown so far, he has been one of the most dangerous big-play weapons in the NFL. As such, online oddsmakers have given him various odds for receiving statistics that are more in line with his averages in the regular season. However, receptions in particular appears to be one of the most valuable props that bettors can hammer the under on.
Big Play Ability Comes at a Price
A.J. Brown has averaging a huge 17 yards per catch. But, with a receptions prop of 5.5 at -130 odds for the under, his efficiency and deep threat playstyle will prove to be his biggest weakness.
On the year with Jalen Hurts as the starter, A.J. Brown logged six or more receptions just four times in 17 games. In his last five games with Hurts, he has only logged over five catches once, against the Bears’ porous defense. Even in those four games where he went over five catches, two of them came against bottom-tier defenses whilst Dallas Goedert was out.
While the Chiefs are certainly not the pinnacle of pass defense, it is difficult to envision A.J. Brown catching multiple short passes when the likes of Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith have been in that role the whole year.
All of this points to Brown’s under 5.5 receptions prop being a phenomenal bet at very solid -130 odds. While likely not a huge money maker at those odds, the prop’s under has consistently happened throughout the season and there is little reason to suspect a change in the makeup of the Eagles’ offensive scheme.
Yardage Prop Will Rely on a Big Play
Online sportsbooks have also given A.J. Brown a receiving yards prop of 71.5, which he has easily hit more consistently than his receptions throughout the year.
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On the year, AJB has logged 72+ yards in nine out of 19 games. But, Brown still embodied the feast or famine style of play, with five games of 50 or less yards, including both playoff weeks. If he is going to hit this over, it will likely require a long play or two.
The Chiefs’ defense is surely an approachable matchup though as they allow 221 yards per game, close to league average. This is paired with Brown being fifth in the NFL in 20+ yard receptions, and third in 40+ yard receptions.
For those invested in the Eagles and Brown’s big play ability, the yardage prop sports decent value odds of -114 for the over. The same odds exist for the under if any bettor is bullish on him continuing his disappearing act. But overall, bettors will likely find a more predictable venture on the under for his receptions prop.
Jeremias began writing 4 years ago after beginning his career at Florida State University. He mainly focuses on using analytics and statistics to educate readers on trends and discoveries to get a leg up on sportsbooks. He mainly focuses on NFL, NHL, and NBA. During his free time, you can find him researching, writing, and betting on various sports.