Battle For The Grand Canyon State: Arizona Election Odds Breakdown

  • Joe Biden is a -130 favorite to win Arizona, a swing state that went Red in 2016.
  • Mark Kelly (D) has -400 odds as the favorite to win Arizona’s senate seat from Martha McSally (R).
  • The discrepancy between these two could end up being the major election story from AZ.

LAS VEGAS - Arizona looks to be a hotly contested state in the 2020 Presidential election, as both candidates are looking to pick up the swing votes.

In 2016, Arizona broke for Donald Trump and yielded him 11 electoral votes that helped him best Hillary Clinton.

In 2020, the landscape in AZ looks much different - Joe Biden is polling significantly ahead in the Presidential election, while Mark Kelly is favored against Martha McSally in the AZ Senate race as well.

AZ Presidential Race

Right now, Joe Biden is a mild favorite to win Arizona on the major sportsbooks. Here’s what the odds look like at Bovada

Arizona (AZ) @ Bovada

  • Democratic Candidate -130
  • Republican Candidate EVEN

BetOnline has the exact same odds as most online sportsbooks like Bovada – a Biden victory in Arizona.

Arizona (AZ) Electoral Odds @ BetOnline

  • Democratic Candidate -130
  • Republican Candidate EVEN

The polls indicate a mild Biden lead, but if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden could end up with a loss.

Biden is up 3.2 points on FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, and their final projections see Arizona as a relatively blue state, with Biden winning 72% of the time.

72%, of course, is roughly where they had Hillary Clinton’s chances to win in 2016. The polling suggests that a Biden win is fairly likely - more likely than the odds suggest it to be.

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The problem is that the odds are where they are because people do not trust the polling right now.

AZ Senate Race

Meanwhile, in the Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly (D) is favored to win big over Martha McSally (R).

Arizona Senate Race

  • Mark Kelly -400
  • Martha McSally +250

Mark Kelly, the Democrat, is a -400 favorite to win this statewide race over Martha McSally.

Taken at face value, these kinds of odds seem good for Joe Biden - or bad for Mark Kelly.

The gap between Biden’s odds and Kelly’s odds to win Arizona seems notable and implies either a seriously large amount of ticket-splitting, or overcorrection from 2016 on the part of the sportsbooks’ Presidential odds.

Political bettors will have to figure out which way the winds are blowing, because these two wagers could be related.