Betting on the Jags to Cover Against the Chiefs

  • The Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS when favored by 8.5 or more at home this season.
  • Jacksonville is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games while Kansas City is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

KANSAS CITY – The Kansas City Chiefs have been the public favorite this season, being favored to win in 15 of their 17 games. Despite their impressive 14-3 record, the Chiefs are 6-10-1 ATS this season, which ranks 28 in the NFL.

Kansas City’s Struggles Against the Spread

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs have been complete opposites against the spread since a 10-point push in their Week 10 matchup.

The Chiefs only covered the spread twice in their last ten games, going 2-7-1 ATS across that span. The game had an almost completely opposite effect for the Jaguars, who went on to cover six of their next eight games following their loss against the Chiefs.

Kansas City’s record SU and ATS have such an alarming difference due to the Chiefs commonly finding themselves as heavy favorites against opponents. The Chiefs have been favored by 8.5 points or more eight times this season, going 2-5-1 ATS in those games.

As the Chiefs continue to win, their spreads correspondingly increase. Online sportsbooks show they are 8.5-point home favorites on Saturday, a position in which they are 1-3-1 ATS in this season.

How Playing at Arrowhead Benefits the Jags

The Chiefs are the highest scoring team in the NFL, averaging 29.2 points a game this season. Surprisingly, the Chiefs are less productive at home.

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They average 25.1 ppg and are 1-6-1 ATS at home this season. When playing on the road, the Chiefs average 32.8 ppg and are 4-5 ATS.

This 7.7-point difference opens the door for a Jacksonville team that doesn’t have as steep of a difference between their home and away points scored.

The Jaguars are averaging 25 points per road game and 24.1 points per home game including their miraculous 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Super Wild Card round. Look for the Jaguars to cover +8.5 on Saturday afternoon in Kansas City.

Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs