- Online sportsbooks have given the Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills game the highest over/under in the NFL in Week 12 and have correlated that to big days by both Josh Allen and Jared Goff.
- Betting the under of Josh Allen’s passing yardage and passing touchdowns and on at least interception is a strong bet based on his past four games.
- The Detroit Lions have shown a new game plan over their past few weeks, which points to Jared Goff going under his total passing attempts and under his interception total.
DETROIT - Online sportsbooks have released quarterback betting odds for the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills matchup on Thanksgiving Day, with many of the prop odds at Bovada on Jared Goff and Josh Allen opening to high as a result of the game's Week 12-high total.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions Betting Odds
|Buffalo Bills||-10.0 (EVEN)||-470||O54.5 (-110)|
|Detroit Lions||+10.0 (-120)||+345||U54.5 (-110)|
Betting the Under on Josh Allen Passing Props
NFL sportsbooks have clearly correlated the expected high-scoring game between the Lions and Bills with a massive game from Josh Allen.
That may happen, but even if Josh Allen plays well there is a strong chance he does not reach his passing player props:
- Total Passing Yards: 281.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
- Total Passing Touchdowns: 2.5 (Over: +155, Under: -210)
- Total Interceptions: 0.5 (Over: -115, Under: -115)
Allen's past four games suggest that betting the under on his passing yards and touchdowns and the over on his interceptions is the best way to go:
- Week 8 (Buf: 27 GB: 17): 218 Passing Yards, 2 Passing Touchdowns, 2 Interceptions
- Week 9 (Buf: 17 NYJ: 20): 205 Passing Yards, 0 Passing Touchdowns, 2 Interceptions
- Week 10 (Buf: 30 Minn: 33): 330 Passing Yards, 1 Passing Touchdown, 2 Interceptions
- Week 11 (Buf: 31 Cle: 23): 197 Passing Yards, 1 Passing Touchdown, 0 Interceptions
The scores in the bullets also indicate that just because a Buffalo Bills game involves a lot of points, that does not necessarily mean Josh Allen will go over his props.
Betting the under on passing yards and touchdowns by Josh Allen, while betting the over for his interceptions are likely the best bet on the former Wyoming product.
Betting the Under on Jared Goff Passing
The Lions have won their past three games, all as an underdog. That is largely because they are no longer an overly pass-happy team, and are simply asking Jared Goff to take care of the football and manage the game.
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Goff has thrown exactly 26 passes in the past three games, with one interception over that span.
Despite both those stats, online sportsbooks are suggesting Goff is going to air the ball out ten times more than he has in any of the past three games and is offering plus odds on him not throwing an interception:
- Total Pass Attempts: 35.5 (Over: -113, Under: -115)
- Total Interceptions: 0.5 (Over: -200, Under: +150)
Detroit's last three games have ended with a combined total of 26 points, 61 points, and 49 points, but they have not changed their game plan with Goff.
Betting under for Jared Goff's interceptions and pass attempts is a strong option that includes plus odds and is likely one of the best bets on Thanksgiving.
Are you betting the under on Josh Allen and Jared Goff’s passing props at Bovada?